Model line-up strategy

[peterottaway]

I consider myself an optimist but the best I can see happening is

July/August 2009 Sony announce A500 and A550. Nikon announce D3000 and D300s refresh.

October/November Nikon announce D90s refresh. This mainly an update on video.

PMA 2010 Sony announce A7xx with 15/16 MP. Nikon may announce D4 which is a D3 with a 15MP version of the current 12MP FF sensor. D5000s refresh.

June/July 2010 Sony refresh A200/300 bodies plus A800 FF ( revised todays A900 ) perhaps a few hundred dollars cheaper. Nikon announce D400.

Photokina 2010 Sony announce 30MP FF and refresh A500/550. Nikon announce D700x with 24MP FF and D95 revision.

Late November Nikon announce D4x with the Sony FF sensor.

The next new FF are in fact just as likely not to appear until 2011 and not for technical reasons. Financially as long as the current versions are selling then there is no hurry to replace them. Also many of todays lenses battle to perform well with 20-24MP sensors, Nikon as much as anyone needs to update a number of its enthusiast/pro lenses which is neither a cheap or quick undertaking. Sony lens users are not alone in wanting more and better.

[bfitzgerald]

We cannot rule out the progression of FF into high end semi pro APS. If the A900 is selling for maybe £1700 (ish, on a quick glance some places)

They might not save anything with a lower mp sensor, but they could easily reduce costs on other body parts, specs and processing power etc etc.

I tremble to think of what the re-fresh of the A230-380 would be, just a bare shutter release with a body devoid of any controls lol

A500 series must surely be next, but I wonder if the price tag will be too much for some. A new A700 is going to be pricey enough, but it may well have significant upgrades to justify that. Whatever way you swing it, FF is going to start to edge down in price, and on lower spec bodies. Not convinced it's worth sploshing £1200 on an APS body, when a FF is not really, that much more. Whoever brings FF to the lower price bracket, is going to clean up.

[Greg Beetham]

One thing I don't get is, why would Sony think a 30MP FF camera would be such a good idea? aside from the file size per frame, quite a few lenses are having issues with 24MP, resolution and corner light loss, that's been mentioned more than once, wouldn't more and smaller sensels make the vignetting issue even more pronounced than it is already on FF?
Greg

[alphaomega]

bfitzgerald wrote:

Not convinced it's worth sploshing £1200 on an APS body, when a FF is not really, that much more. Whoever brings FF to the lower price bracket, is going to clean up.

Not sure it would be a "clean up" if that happened. A lot of enthusiast photographers have APS-C DSLRs and lenses. Going to FF would mean new, heavier and more expensive lenses. Not sure it would be necessary to purchase Pounds 1200 DSLRs to get the necessary quality and functionality if the Nikon D5000 sets the tone for cameras in that segment. I for one have no intention of going to FF although I could afford it. In reality I might look closely at the new Olympus micro 4/3 DSLRs if a model is made with OVF as well as LV and a decent WA Zoom. That would effectively replace my A700/350 on the one hand and LX2/3 on the other hand when travelling light. The Oly system might fill all my requirements if Sony do not produce a decent replacement for the A700 within a year. I certainly will not need 30Mp, but a well specified A700 replacement around 16 Mp would do fine. I do Alamy work as a hobby and such a sensor would almost eliminate upsizing and provide more space for cropping.
I agree with Greg Beetham that it is difficult to understand why Sony would want to move to 24Mp in the A900 when Canon is only at 21Mp and Nikon depends on Sony. Maybe they have information that Canon is working on a 2DS with 30Mp.

[bfitzgerald]

Not sure about the lens thing. Some folk seem to be happy enough with some very reasonable priced optics. 17-35mm and 28-75mm spring to mind, but I am sure A900 users can talk more on that. As I am 35mm based for FF, it's not really the same

I suspect few "need" 24mp, and most would have their needs more than filled with say 12-16mp. 16mp FF sounds fine to me. 30mp isn't much of a jump over 24mp anyway, would really hardly be worth it on that basis alone.

My own view is that over time we will see a move to 3 layer sensors, and the actual fill rate could be lower, but with no AA, and no colour interpolation, it would seem a 15mp foveon beating FF sensor could out gun a 24mp one. Makers are going to have to come up with new ideas, this is one of them.

[alphaomega]

bfitzgerald wrote:

My own view is that over time we will see a move to 3 layer sensors, and the actual fill rate could be lower, but with no AA, and no colour interpolation, it would seem a 15mp foveon beating FF sensor could out gun a 24mp one. Makers are going to have to come up with new ideas, this is one of them.

I remember reading a review of the latest Sigma DSLR with Foveon. The reviewer simply stated that it was an excellent 4Mp camera. In other words it was nowhere near a 12Mp camera for resolution even although everybody acknowledges the colour depth achievable with this type of sensor. A 15Mp Foveon would then perhaps be the equivalent of a 8Mp DSLR for resolution unless they can improve vastly in this area. I think that the Foveon has no chance of approaching a 24Mp Bayer sensor on resolution but it probably will on dynamic range and colour depth. The same argument applied to the Fujifilm S3 and S5 cameras. They have gone probably never to return in DSLR form. In fact, from a purely business point of view Sigma should probably not have entered the DSLR market. They sell few. They get so-so reviews and they are committed to issue every lens they release in a Sigma mount. I doubt they make a lot of money. I believe they are committed as I seem to recall they actually purchased the makers of the Foveon sensor a year or so ago.

[bfitzgerald]

Yeah but resolution isn't the ultimate goal of IQ. No doubt foveon has not have the development it could use. But I disagree that 4mp foveon is equal to 4mp bayer, closer to 10mp bayer IMO, least from images I have seen.

Colour depth is one of the main pull points, bayer is a compromise IMO, and let's not forget, sigma are using a 1.7 crop factor. A 1.5 would improve things, as would a company that isn't trying to be a minor player. Sigma are not a serious player in cameras, it's a small freak show playing along on the sidelines, and not much else

But there potential is there. I don't see bayer around in 10 years time, let's put it like that. Do we really expect 100mp FF sensors on bayer? I would think that's not likely

[stevecim]

A200 is now number 1 at Anazon UK single lens kit and number 16 twin lenses kit, a350 has number up to number 10
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/ ... =UTF8&pg=1


And a230 twin lenses kit has MOVED upto number 45. after dropping from 60s to 80s it's now started moved UP, will it make it into the top 10?

[alphaomega]

stevecim wrote:

A200 is now number 1 at Anazon UK single lens kit and number 16 twin lenses kit, a350 has number up to number 10
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/ ... =UTF8&pg=1


And a230 twin lenses kit has MOVED upto number 45. after dropping from 60s to 80s it's now started moved UP, will it make it into the top 10?

I agree with those who say that the new A2/300 series cameras are a step backwards, but then we judge from a A700/900 point of view. In a way I am not surprised at these Amazon placings. These are probably mostly P&S upgraders. We should not underestimate the pull of the Sony brand name. Many of these purchasers probably have one or several Sony devices be it P&S, Video, TV or what have you and have confidence in the brand. If Sony also deliver higher up "the food chain" to people looking for enthusiast, semi pro and eventually pro equipment they could achieve the coveted No. two spot. They have the technology to do it. If they also have the will and staying power they will become a formidable force also in the DSLR segment.

I must admit the I went for Sony when the A700 came out, not only because I had had Minolta MD equipment since 1968, but also because I had faith in Sony's ability to come out with quality equipment. I still believe they are on track to deliver the goods for all segments from beginners to at least semi pros. Time will tell if I am right in that assumption.

[alphaomega]

David Kilpatrick wrote earlier in this thread:

Press conf on 29th. We are invited. Richard will go.

There has been a lot of speculation here, on Dyxum and DPReview but nothing concrete has come out other than the A500/550/850 designations and details of some spare parts not really clarifying anything of consequence. Well, it's 27 July per my calendar so I guess that within a couple of days we should be better informed about Sony's future DSLR direction for enthusiasts and "semi pro" users. I do hope that David has set up a "hot line" so that we can be privilege to information the way he and Shirley arranged for a detailed and instant information flow on the A900 release. That was a truly remarkable performance.

[bfitzgerald]

Sony are going to need something hot to warm folks up! These new entry ones are sending people to sleep.
A230 will rise (it's down to 65 right now in DSLR's on amazon), but only with a significant price cut. It's a poor show for a new model however..that's the point of that.

With the A380 initial release at £600 odd, it's going to be interesting to see where Sony put these A500's price wise. Again, the problem could be £700-£800 or more being the "serious sony level". That's too much for me..by a long shot.
If sony don't get this right, they are taking a big risk with Alpha users, some of whom might start to look around at other makers. I want to stick with A mount, and will. But I have serious doubts about Sony's line-up, and the entry series is a disaster IMO, and will cost them market share. I'm not in the market for large outlays on bodies, and users such as myself are shut out in the cold.

[stevecim]

How things change over time.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/ ... =UTF8&pg=1

the a230 is now in 6th place the A380 is 9th and the A200 has dropped to 11th.

[bfitzgerald]

Not really, as I said with a price cut it will rise up the list, not because it's "good" but simply "cheap", but as it's the cheapest on there, it really should be top of the list ist place
A200 is discontinued, so it's previous £270 ish price is gone now, in fact it's commanding a price premium on ebay right now, as folks hunt it out over the newer model

BTW the A230 is in 8th place right now, still behind all it's main rivals: D3000, D60, EOS 450/500d are beating it. The A200 was a consistent 1st or 2nd place on DSLR sales. I doubt the A230 will match that, even with a price cut. Too many mediocre reviews and users opinions. So no things don't change, IMO Sony have lost their entry level edge. It's an embarrassment to have a company with a model line up like that

[stevecim]

I don't care much for the new models but to go from 80s into top 10, means either
a: it's selling in volume
b: the sales volumes on all the other models are so low they have dropped down to A230/A330 levels
c: That list has no real bearing on market placement.

Has for the "Model Line-up Strategy" it's clear that Sony think there is a sizeable market for PnS SLR and the new A2XX/3XX cameras where designed to fit that market, Time will tell if that strategy works or not. I think (for now, waiting on full reviews) the new 5XX models are good replacements for the A300/350 models, They seemed to have improved nearly all of the features of the A300/A350 and added some new features.

We now wait to see what the A700 replacement will look like. The relacements for the A230/A330/A380 in 12 months time should be a nice little camera, no reason why the new features of the A5XX models won't end up in the replacement A2/3 models, CMOS sensors, face detect, better VF and it would not take much to improve the grip with out adding much weight.

[bfitzgerald]

I have no idea how accurate that list is. All I have seen is the A200 on ist or 2nd for ages prior to the new A2xx-3xx models coming out. So I imagine it was a decent seller. (aka ain't broke, don't fix it!)

Every company talks about a "new untapped market" and "huge sales" Panasonic did with the G1, but what do we see? Traditional DSLR's topping the sales charts and by significant margins. I don't buy Sony's smaller lighter sell more, any more than I did Panasonic's, maybe to some people..but they should be setting sales records if this huge market want these cameras!

Never debated the A5xx models make for decent A3xx replacements, which makes you wonder why we have 3 entry models, surely a mistake on the part of Sony? What the A5xx series is not, are well featured mid level models (which some expected)
Hence my remarks, I continue to feel Sony's model line up is ill advised, with too many entry models, not enough real differences, and their apparent abandonment of decent optical finders worries me more than anything.