Is the MEGA Pixel race over for now?

[destrianlives]

I think that the megapixel race has reached a plateau for now, and that Sony knew it when they made three generations of entry-level SLRs with the same 10 MP sensor. Confirming the lull in the megapixel race was Nikon's D700, boldly using yesterday's pixel densities with tomorrow's ISO limits, and to very good results!

The race will resume when manufacturers are confident enough with their technologies that they can push the pixels without sacrificing the sensitivity. New technologies (think Foveon), fine-tuning of older ones (think Canon's 7D), and advances in noise-reduction algorithms, and eventually Sony's own backlit CMOS design will allow the next generation of advancements.

I am greatly encouraged by Canon's 7D for Sony's sake. We can safely guess that an a700 replacement will use the new 14.2MP CMOS, so we won't have to worry about megapixels creeping up at the expense of noise for that model. And with highly competent pro-spec APS-C cameras from both Canon and Nikon, Sony cannot ignore the market and the bar will be set high for features and functionality in the a700 replacement.

Viceroy this is a Hott and competent statement! You snatched the words right outta my mouth! He's right. The MP race will die down for one season of hardcore R&D to create THE NEXT sensor that will kill noise and do what the Nikon D700 did but for at 14-16mp!

[PhotoTraveler]

No, it hasn't, not at all.

Olympus have more or less stated they will stay with their 12Mp sensor.

This isn't because of MP war, it's because there sensor is tiny. Scale it and you have a 46MP FF sensor. They are pushing the limits hard. It all ready means they have to produce a good lens to manage. Still, they will move forward some in time. But it will be slow. It's all dependent on Panasonic to develop a really good sensor, but you can only expect so much. They might actually consider going backlit. Still, Panny gets it right with their oversized sensors, which is a good side path for now.

Pentax/Samsung sticking with their 14Mp sensor

Not really "sticking with" they have very little market share and thus harder to re-coupe NRE. K20D, k7D and Samsung versions all combined is still much less than say a A350 sales. So they need to use it for a while to pay it off. Also they made a big jump from 10 to 14, and 14MP thus still has some life. How Samsung decides to go on the NX stuff will be a hint to what's next.

Panasonic stated, when releasing their LX3, that 10Mp was optimum for P&S quality. Lens restricted to 24-60 equivalent for best quality.

All companies when they realize something say it's optimal, and then move on with the next models. Canon wasn't long ago saying all was needed was 8MP. Of course they had 8MP and everyone else had 6. Soon as everyone went 2MP ahead of them they changed their story.

Nikon stayed with 12Mp in their D300s. (Maybe access to Sony's new 14.2 CMOS denied?)

It's an S model, thus no resolution change is in the cards. They never change such things on S models, S just means minor functional tweaks and minor things. For the D300, it was largely the addition of video. A change in resolution would be an all new camera (D400). Which is probably coming in 2010. The D300 replacement will almost certainly use the new 14MP CMOS unit, same as Sony. Unless Sony has a 16MP unit too. For now, Nikon is just good with 12MP on much of their stuff. But wait for a new generation and it will change. They passed on the 14MP CCD, it could be it just didn't match up with their plans as they were plotting video and LV for their models, so they didn't do a D60X. Sony won't deny anyone a sensor, that's their cash cow.

Canon reduced sensor in G11 to 10Mp compared with G10 at 14.7Mp

Doesn't mean a thing. They made a minor change to make those happy that wanted lower res. G10 isn't going anywheres. Just means they can get some more sales out of that design to the folks who baulked at the G10. I have a G10, it's not bad at all. Wait for a G12, pixel count will probably be back to 15.

Sony could have tried to outdo or match Canon 50D on sensor size for the A550, but stayed at 14.2Mp with their new A550 sensor.

Yes, they could have. But that would have been a waste and hurt them on the nikon front. First, they have a nice little progression going, and things are working. Why burn up precious MP jumps in one shot if you don't have too. Sony has been doing well with their growth, so there isn't an urgent need to follow canon. It probably wouldn't hurt them though. Then there is the nikon factor. Sony has to make a sensor Nikon wants. Nikon is more conservative on pixels, so jump to much and they might get Nikon thinking "hey, we should design APS sensors too". Another thing is they didn't actually stay at anything. The predecessor to the A500/A550 is the A100. So that's a 2 and 4MP jump. And it's kind of a replacement of the A700, which would still be a 2MP jump for the A550. Also, Sony very well is messing with Canon. Canon surely expected a 16MP model from Sony. So canon did 18MP. In the mean time Sony probably expected that and just did 14MP, and hope for Canon to be a mess.

The A850 utilises the A900 sensor and Sony stated clearly at A900 release that the 24Mp sensor ideally matched the capabilities of the CZ lenses (presumably they also think the same of their G glass).

Again, the marketing speak how it's optimal for X. This is true until the "A930/A970" come with 24 and 30MP, or 30 and 40MP. 24MP most likely has a lot more to do with Sony haven't projected what Canon would do and been pretty sure it wouldn't be that high of pixel count. Also the CMOS sensor folks probably had developed a photosite that size for a 10MP unit as another option that never came to be. The A850 has the same sensor since it's the same camera. It's not a new camera, it's an A900 with a new price.

Canon kept their 21Mp sensor for the 5D. No attempt to outdo Sony here.

5DII and A900 were done at the same time, cameras and sensors don't happen over night.

It seems to me that the name of the game now is to improve on the sensor size capability rather than adding more mega pixels. Maybe it has dawned on them that the points made repeatedly by certain independent commentors that adding more pixels reduces the signal to noise ratio and there is a limit beyond which lenses can no longer cope.

No, it's just a moment in the cycle. We have seen this many times before. Pick any time 6/8 era, people thought it would hold, then came the 10 era, people thought it was it, and so on and so forth. People keep with this false Idea things will stop. They won't. Many models have just got to the 12 era. It will be 18 months till their next jump.

Wait for Sony's next round. The low end models will be 12 and 14. replacing the 10 and 14 CCDs. A higher res APS sensor will come, maybe sooner than anyone thinks. A 30+MP sensor will come before long too.

[peterottaway]

I know with Barry it's MLU and DOF and with me it's glass, glass and more glass. or perhaps

But accepting that PhotoTraveler is fundamentally correct and the medium and high performance APS cameras are going to go to 14/16/18 MP, then not only Sony but also Canon and Nikon will need to produce families of medium and high quality lenses to support them. This is not only for technical reasons to get something like value for money performance after putting down your $1200 to $2000 for these models, but also because this segment of the market does buy extra lenses and will pay for them.

What is the point of paying $1799 for a 7D or an A750 if you can't get better optical results than when paying $795 for an A500 ? There are many more enthusiasts than there are pro's to spread your development costs over. And yes you then will sell some of these higher priced lenses to those bought the A500 as well.

It's fine that the A850 is only $1999 this year when the A900 was $2999 last year but if your choice of lenses is restricted to the current CZ glassware or older pre-digital Minolta lenses, then I cannot see yourself creating a new mass market.

[bfitzgerald]

As far as I can see the new Canon 7d might tick a lot of boxes for sports and action shooters, but a lot of folks would rather have a FF beast. The price of the canon is high, and I don't see a future in the long term for that price of high end APS camera.

It's a last gasp for Canon in APS IMO

We'll see FF move into semi pro APS land shortly, and then we will really see some interesting stuff

[Mr_Canuck]

Yes. It's now called the high-ISO noise war.

The next BIG thing needed is faster phase-detect AF. All the 'rangefinder' style cameras need it sorely. This will also transform the optical viewfinder discussion; sorry but it will.