More from Gustav on Sony Alpha in 2010

[Winedarksea]

Gustav (Kingfisher on Photoclubalpha, ijsvogel on Dyxun), from the Netherlands) has long impressed me with his astute and well-informed predictions about future Alpha cameras. With his A900, he takes wonderful shots of kingfishers from a blind, where he waits patiently for hours, and he has made appearances at photography events on behalf of Sony on several occasions in the last year or so. This has put him in contact with fairly high-ranking Sony Alpha European officials, so when he makes predictions he speaks with some level of authority. He was largely on the money with regard to the A550, for example.

Earlier in the fall, he predicted that the new A7xx would appear in January or February, and that it would not have video. Just a month ago, he predicted its appearance in March or April. In a series of posts on Dyxum yesterday, he said the "they" are now saying it would be "after April," with no further elaboration as to when. He speculates that maybe Sony had decided that the camera would have to have video, and so have delayed release until that could be perfected. Last month he was quoting Sony officials as saying that it would be a great camera that would have the entire camera world talking. Now he is saying that it will be an amazing camera that will be well worth the wait. He also emphatically says that it will be an APSc camera. That seems to be in line with what Toru Katsumoto recently said.

In the fall, Gustav said that Sony would have video in its Alpha-level cameras by the end of the year. I could not tell whether this meant in Alpha cameras with ovf or in mirrorless cameras. Thom Hogan and Toru Katsumoto both made it clear that Sony is working on Sony mirrorless cameras, perhaps with Alpha mount. Hogan perdicted their appearance sometime around September of 2010, and that is the only indication I've seen.

Yesterday, Gustav also predicted that an Alpha between A380 and A500 (A450?) would be announced at CES, the second week of January, 2010. Gustav also said that this camera would apparently not be spectacular, having perhaps the same specs as the A500, but without LV. Apparently Sony will also announce a whole raft of p&s cameras at CES.

There was a rumor circulating on Sony Alpha Rumors a short while ago that Sony would also announce an A800 at CES, in addition to the A450. Gustav doesn't mention it, but says that he knows that there will be more cameras in the A800 and A900 series, when he doesn't know. Another poster at Dyxum pointed out that the Canadian SonyStyle site now lists the Sony Alpha cameras under the rubrics: A200 series, A300 series, A500 series, A700 series, A 800 series, and A900 series--implying that there will be more cameras in each series. Carl apparently heard A800 as the name of a future camera early this fall. So I wonder if we won't have an A800 appearing sometime this year. CES, as predicted? or perhaps later? FF 14 meg? FF 24 meg?

Gustav also predicts that 2010 will also be a big year for Alpha lens introductions by Sony, eight or ten lenses. This seems to be in concurrence with other predictions. It appears that they will include the 500 f4, and either a CZ 18mm, or a CZ 24mm, or a 200mmG. This means that Sony has been ramping up introduction of new lenses quite considerably this year and next--seven this year, eight to ten next.

So what does all this mean?

Here is my two cents worth. Take it of course with a grain of salt--I am already very likely wrong in my previous prediction of the A7xx cameras in the first quarter of 2010.

Sony will introduce an A450 and many p&s cameras at CES.

Sony will introduce an A650 at PMA. This will be a fine and worthy A700 successor, but without the name and without video. It may be the last Alpha to be introduced without video.

Sony will then introduce the "amazing" A7xx in May--reserving the 700 level, as Minolta did, for ground-breaking technology.

Sometime between January and September, Sony will introduce an A800. And sometime between September of 2010 and March of 2011, Sony will introduce an A9xx that will blow our socks off.

In September, Sony will introduce a mirrorless competitor for the mirrorless cameras already on the market. These will be very fine cameras for still photography, but will offer the best video experience in any "slr" camera to date. Will they use the Alpha mount? or will they use a new mount, with adaptors for Alpha lenses?

Sprinkled throughout the year, Sony will introduce as many as ten new lenses, including several that will help to position some of the new Alphas as excellent journalist, sports, action, wildlife cameras, and several to help fill out other gaps. Some of them will be optimized for video.

And sometime between summer 2010 and first quarter 2011, I expect revisions in the A200/300/400/500 series.

Can Sony do all of this in 2010? I don't know; the best-laid plans of mice and men go oft awry. But they have been working on it hard, and have I believe built up a sizable amount of momentum. In any case, I expect the Alpha line to have a very interesting year in 2010.

Dulaney

[bfitzgerald]

We shall see soon enough.

If this info is even half right, again Sony seem convinced that they need a large number of models on the market. I am not sure why they are following this route. Currently I see a lot of models that are very close on spec. Adding an A450 would do nothing to fill any gaps, unless they take a look at stuff they ripped out.

This could be a fun year, in more ways than one, we'll soon see where they are going, and I'll be packing my parachute just in case

[youpii]

Gustav also predicts that 2010 will also be a big year for Alpha lens introductions by Sony, eight or ten lenses. This seems to be in concurrence with other predictions. It appears that they will include the 500 f4, and either a CZ 18mm, or a CZ 24mm, or a 200mmG. This means that Sony has been ramping up introduction of new lenses quite considerably this year and next--seven this year, eight to ten next.

Sounds too good to be true. Let's see...

[Birma]

Perhaps Sony's strategy is to bring out cameras that have unique/strong selling points aimed at particular niches in the market. If they just go head to head all of the time with Canikon then they are always going to struggle as one of the small players. Olympus and Panasonic have done that this year with their EVILs. The A900/A850 have a niche as large number of mega pixels, FF for under £2K. The latest 230/330/380 where an attempt to go for the P&S upgrade market (perhaps a bit of a miss, specially considering Oly and Panny entries in to that arena). The 500/550 I think was an attempt at a "fast" dslr at a cheaper / mid price point. Surely for Sony it is better to having something different to the big two, not to try and compete directly? I think this is where Pentax will have trouble as their cameras having compelling feature lists, but seem to be targetted directly against models from the big two.

[bfitzgerald]

Not sure I agree with Birma

I think half of the problems for Pentax are just getting their stuff on the shelves, you would have to hunt about a fair bit where I am to just find anything. They probably have too few models, and most of their system is APS lens based, making a FF option seem rather unlikely.

I think Sony can compete head to head with Canon and Nikon, they just need to be taken seriously in the market, models like the A230-380 don't inspire confidence in the company, in fact rather the opposite. Do as Canon and Nikon do, just do it better, and be more competitive. Latest sales figures from Japan show Sony last, at 4% market share, and the only models that charted were the old A300 and A350, nothing else! Granted Japan isn't the world, but that's pretty awful really, beaten by every other maker, including Panasonic and Olympus. Whatever they are doing..it's not working, and it's def not working in Japan.

I think this re-enforces my sustained criticism of Sony's current strategy.

[mdcromer]

Barry,

That market share data was complete garbage, as it only looked at the 20 top selling models.

Given that the top selling Sony models were only available for about 1/2 of the year, obviously that impacted sales %.

If you want to look at market share, you have to look at total market share across all models.

I'm also less interested in market share in Japan, versus global market share (and US market share).

Now if Sony's global market share has, in fact, gone from 12% to 4% I would agree that is a huge problem, but right now we don't have any evidence of that.

I happen to agree with you that Sony needs to make some changes (add MLU to at least the 500+ models, add video to all models just for the marketing points) but I would like to see some real, worthwhile data on market share and not go ape**** based on this incredibly flawed metric.

[bfitzgerald]

I have no idea how accurate the data is, but to point out a few things.

Olympus EP-1 only announced in June 2009
Panasonic GF-1, Sept 2009
Pentax K-x Sept 2009

That ignores on the shelf dates, just the press releases!

Not sure the point is valid, as many models will have brisk sales just after their release, and the new entry models have been about since the start of last year. As I said I accept that maybe better data is available, worldwide share is obviously more important overall, but then it's entirely appropriate to call the new entry models a failure, esp if you look at the production levels chart they have on display, forget where the link is, but Sony obviously were expecting huge sales, and that has not happened. To them they will be a failure.

A5xx models August 2009, they have had enough time to make some impact. If the data is accurate, they are not selling very well either.

As said, I think Sony can not rely on fast AF LV alone to boost sales, it's not been working, and it's not currently working either. It's not good to be last, esp on you home ground.

[bfitzgerald]

No misinformation, nor trolling, sorry if you dislike hearing these things WestCoast..reality bites hard sometimes.

http://bcnranking.jp/news/0912/091228_16149.html

Now before you go off on one (as you tend to) try looking up the word "debate" it makes it so much more interesting for the reader
Some folks around here can have a discussion, minus personal insults and remarks, consider that a suggestion on sticking to a topic, and not making degrading remarks about posters. You won't find these tactics work very well anyway.

One guy has made a blog about 2008 v 2009 market shares, and that can be found here:
http://m43photo.blogspot.com/2010/01/ma ... japan.html

[bfitzgerald]

I posted the links as they are of some interest. If you wish to disagree with them so be it.
Can you provide any information as to why the details are incorrect? Or that the source is suspect or misleading??

[UrsaMajor]

Perhaps Sony's strategy is to bring out cameras that have unique/strong selling points aimed at particular niches in the market.

A few weeks ago I noticed that Sony is selling a DVD called "Kids in Focus", done by one of their "Artisans of Imaging" who has a reputation as a photographer of children. She was scheduled to talk at a local SonyStyle store, so I went to see how well she speaks and what type of advice she offers, as an aid to deciding if I would pick up her DVD as a gift for my daughter-in-law. (I did buy the DVD as a Christmas gift.)

In response to a question during the presentation as to how she became connected with Sony, she said that a couple of years ago - prior to being hired as a Sony representative - she was one of several professionals who were invited to come to a Sony Alpha market research meeting that was attempting to define how they could better reach potential women customers. She said that one of her inputs was "smaller and lighter", and that another input was "short learning curve". She said that she believes that the A330 and A380 reflect the inputs she and others made a couple of years ago. (FWIW, her own working camera is an A900, usually with a CZ 24-70 lens mounted, so she clearly was not advising Sony to build what she wanted for her own professional use.)

Personally, I would have less than zero interest in using an A330. Aside from being very happy with the user interface and features of my A700, when I handled the A330 I found that it is the most uncomfortable camera I have ever used. It fits my (6 foot male) hands so badly that using it would be pure misery after a very short time. However, my daughter-in-law is less than 5 feet tall and slender in proportion, and SHE finds the camera comfortable. She also likes using it, and has done so for many pictures of her son in the last three months.

Based upon the above admittedly limited viewpoint, my opinion is that Sony does appear to be attempting niche marketing, and that the A330 and A380 are actually well designed for a specific niche. If they are not selling as well as desired (which may or may not be true - I have no idea what sales Sony expected), it may be that the niche is not as large as Sony expected, or that they are just not reaching the attention of the women in that niche. Personally, I feel that Sony marketing is doing a very poor job of reaching the niche into which I fit, and I have seen indications that the same is true in some other niches as well.

With best wishes,
- Tom -

[Heidfirst]

Latest sales figures from Japan show Sony last, at 4% market share, and the only models that charted were the old A300 and A350, nothing else!

The problem with the Japanese market is that it is unique - you can be massive there & do nothing elsewhere (e.g. look at their mobile 'phones).
Also specifically re. Sony Alphas they seem to have a very strange marketing strategy with 1/2 of their models either not available or introduced way, way later than in the rest of the world.

[Javelin]

I have 2 anecdotal examples. One lady at work bought an A300 and was happy with it. her co worker bought an A330 shortly afterward due to her influence and I understand their friends and cousins also have bought in after their examples

about a month ago a lady friend of mine asked me for advice on a new camera. she was looking at superzooms in the 400.00 range to replace her aging compact. her wants were IS and long battery life, beyond that she had no idea. When I saw the landscapes and flower shots she was taking already with her P&S I tried to steer her toward a DSLR. she was already on her way to being an enthusiast but the problem is Sony has no presence where she lives and there was no Minolta dealers there either so the mount is completely unknown there. so I wanted to steer her toward Nikon but they have no cameras in her price range with a stabilized lens in a kit. Futureshop (a Best Buy type retailer) has had a post x-mas sale on and she found a canon XS with 18-55 for $349.00 it's an excellent deal and she could buy an IS lens later.. when she went out to buy it she found the retailer only had a floor model they wouldn't sell and told her they wouldn't be getting anymore. she phoned me from the store pretty upset but had tried the A230 and thought she liked it better because she felt the canon was a little big anyway. she has slender delicate hands, but it was over her budjet. I looked at their web site and found they had a 2 lens kit 18-55 and 55-200 at 449.00 but online only, and the next nearest kit was an Oly and another Canon again... no IS and too expensive

Today she mailed me and said she decided to order the Sony kit with the 2 lenses instead and she's trilled. becasue in her words "it just felt right" and thought it was well worth the extra money she was going to spend, It became a very personnal choice for her rather than a spec sheet and a more practical idea of local availability and support.

She is going to need a 300mm (or more) and a macro lens which she will probably add over the coming years but she has enough to get started and a 30mm is probably going to serve her flower shooting just fine so maybe sooner for that. the other thing is that she has a sister who is looking to move up from her P&S and no doubt some girlfriends too so I'll bet the whole bunch will go Sony DSLR's in the comming year or 2. I think this is the way marketing to women works...

[KevinBarrett]

I suppose there could be worse cameras to have for that money. I was in Best Buy the other day and I picked up the entry-level cameras just to see what was what. I was surprised to find that I liked the a230 more than the XS or D5000. As wretched as the a230's grip is, it is a realistic concession to the ergonomics of a much smaller camera. The Canikon models keep their camera grips looking like clones of their larger siblings, despite the size of each body. Sure a 7D feels great in the hand, but try holding and using a new Rebel, one-handed, without cursing.

[Javelin]

well what she bought makes sense. none of the other makes have stabilized bodies or kit lenses in that price range. I'm surprized I got her to go with a DSLR at all. it's a lot of money considering cameras like what she is used to can be had for 100 bucks. What really drove her decision to want something better is there was pictures she wanted to be able to take that she couldn't with her old P&S. one of the superzooms might have suited her but there would still be shots she couldn't get. Also she is printing her work now and was a little dissapointed in what she was getting so I send her some of my flower and butterfly shots that she printed and that pretty much convinced her to go with an SLR type instead and started her shopping but price was a real limiting factor as to what she could get. like I said Nikon would have been a better choice for what is available locally for her interms of gear and support.

realistically we talk a lot about wanting zeiss and G lenses and some of the rare minolta lenses but in the end users like my friend will be just as happy with the more competent kit type lenses. come spring when she wants a macro (she may find the close focus of the 18-55 to be enough) she has an inexpesive option in the 30mm which is around $250 now and by then will be under 200 in some of the camera shops she can get to within an hours drive. I also see the 50mm 1.8 is down to $180.00 now too so theres lots of options for her that are inexpensive and preform resonably well if she could only get to them. I'm only worried that if she goes looking for a photography course that someone will discourage her which would be a shame and I'd feel bad for getting her into this.

[pakodominguez]

I'm also less interested in market share in Japan, versus global market share (and US market share).

Do you understand that Japan represent 30% of the global market? That is why we have to endure the dictatorship of Japanese's trends. Sony USA (or any European branch) have very little influence on what the headquarter decide.

Regards