DSLR wars...

[Lonnie Utah]

First off, this should all be in fun as none of us can predict the future. We can guess, but realize you are just guessing.

Second, whenever possible, back up your statements with references, articles, etc. Post links. You are welcome to state your opinion, just note it as such.

Ok, here we go....

How do you see them playing out over the next 5 years? Specifically, how will the new technologies that sony is bringing to the table will impact their market share? Can they compete with the big two? Can they every be #1?

I personally think that Sony has the ability to change the DSLR game with SLT and the NEX. I have heard rumors that Sony is slowly eating away at Nikon and Cannon market share, but I've only seen a few reports with solid numbers. I don't see them being #1 anytime soon, but if they continue to innovate they I think it's possible.

Ok, that should get us going....

[alphaomega]

The future belongs to the young generation. They have been brought up on laptops, iphones, P&S, EVF and what have you. Sony are clearly sensing this and are addressing the latent demand with their SLT and NEX cameras. I just have the gut feeling that Canon and Nikon are committing the classical mistake of solely hanging on to the traditional SLR concept for fear of destroying the "cash cow" I think it is called. If you cannot destroy your current products with a better one someone else will. I just think that Sony is moving into the Apple position to lead with particularly CAN/NIk possibly becoming followers. Canon may have the resources to make a quick turnaround but maybe Nikon cannot and thus Sony may become No. 2 behind Canon. I don't think Sony will be able to overtake Canon in the forseable future. Just my view.

[pakodominguez]

I don't know about the future, but the present situation in Japan favors Sony over Nikon and Canon (http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2011- ... vals_n.htm) due to shortage in production.

[David Kilpatrick]

The only issue for us will be the professional sector. There were no plans in place which might ever take advantage of problems with D3X/S production, or Canon L lenses, etc. Sony has an amazing consumer offering but not much beyond this.

The biggest loser from the earthquake will be Canon, as they have been the most dedicated pro-Japanese manufacturer. Sony is everywhere - they have plants all over the place. Nikon will be feeling very grateful for the Thai government's extreme pressure not to shut down their plant in Thailand (which they intended to do three years ago). Now the Thai plant is a lifeline. It is a manual assembly plant despite the mass-produced nature of the cameras, and the Thai workforce could assemble pro DSLRs equally well.

I would say Sony's market share will not overtake Nikon, they launched a new 50mm f/1.i8 G lens today (Thai, I think) and they will just adapt to focus on consumer DSLRs. Canon will use the problem to build an entirely new factory well away from the 'Ring of Fire' coast, and introduce a NEX competitor which will give Sony serious competition in three years' time.

One outcome of this will be more investment in Malaysia, Indonesia and China by Japanese companies. A second outcome will be integration of subassembly manufacture and dual sourcing. There must be some regret now of the 'just in time' supply chain management, which left factories with zero inventory of a few vital parts, and their 'just in time' subcontractor knocked out of production. There will be a return to stockholding of parts.

But, that's what ultimately killed Minolta UK. After 25 years in operation, they had two entire warehouses with staff full of nothing but redundant spare parts they could not sell. 'Just in time' avoids that. But it risks sudden shutdown.

David

[Lonnie Utah]

So david, do you think the lack of pro offerings is a temporary or permanent position?

[bakubo]

NEX is selling for a lot less in Japan than in the U.S. Even with the strong yen and weak dollar the price is quite good there. The exchange rate is truly terrible these days and quite different than the range it has typically been for the last 20 years.

NEX 5 + 16mm $482
NEX 5 + 18-55mm $529
NEX 5 + 16mm + 18-55mm $640

NEX 3 + 16mm $368
NEX 3 + 18-55mm $404
NEX 3 + 16mm + 18-55mm $485

I wish I was there now because even with the terrible exchange rate I would probably get one to play with. But, probably Sony is still selling their cameras in Japan with firmware where the language cannot be changed -- unlike Canon, Nikon, Pentax, and Olympus. That was true with the A100, A700, and A900, but I don't know if they have finally fixed that. I hope so.

If because of the earthquake and tsunami Sony is in a much better manufacturing position relative to competitors then I wonder if they will take the opportunity to raise their prices?

[KevinBarrett]

Sony will have a "baby-boom" of new users from their wildly popular NEX and SLT models. Not only do these generate a lot of revenue and market share, but some small percentage of these new camera owners are going to want more, and look for competitive upgrade paths in the system. If Sony is wise, they will provide those paths.

The Alpha system has experienced a lot of undue growing pains as Sony tried to figure out the SLR market, and they're already starting to iron out those wrinkles. When the high end cameras start to combine pro-level specifications with all the competitive consumer-level Sony convenience features (and if they do it without finding new ways to arbitrarily/inadvertently cripple the cameras), Sony will have a more significant role among what we'll then know as "The Big Three."

[David Kilpatrick]

I think Sony will re-enter the pro sector in early 2012 with a video and still capable full frame DSLR, unless recent events have so heavily disrupted the supply chain it is not possible.

David

[Lonnie Utah]

Sony will have a "baby-boom" of new users from their wildly popular NEX and SLT models. Not only do these generate a lot of revenue and market share, but some small percentage of these new camera owners are going to want more, and look for competitive upgrade paths in the system. If Sony is wise, they will provide those paths.

Kevin, I agree with your statement 100%.

The Alpha system has experienced a lot of undue growing pains as Sony tried to figure out the SLR market, and they're already starting to iron out those wrinkles. When the high end cameras start to combine pro-level specifications with all the competitive consumer-level Sony convenience features (and if they do it without finding new ways to arbitrarily/inadvertently cripple the cameras), Sony will have a more significant role among what we'll then know as "The Big Three."

People forget that sony has only been in the DSLR business for 5 years (2006). To come out with the A900 only 2 years after the minolta merger, that's pretty ambitious. If you look at how far they've come since then, and extrapolate that out 5 years, I am really excited about what the future might hold.

I think Sony will re-enter the pro sector in early 2012 with a video and still capable full frame DSLR

Do you think it's going to be a OVF or EVF camera? Personally, I don't care, just asking for your opinion.

[bakubo]

NEX is selling for a lot less in Japan than in the U.S. Even with the strong yen and weak dollar the price is quite good there. The exchange rate is truly terrible these days and quite different than the range it has typically been for the last 20 years.

NEX 5 + 16mm $482
NEX 5 + 18-55mm $529
NEX 5 + 16mm + 18-55mm $640

NEX 3 + 16mm $368
NEX 3 + 18-55mm $404
NEX 3 + 16mm + 18-55mm $485

I did some more checking to see the price of some other Sony stuff in Japan at the current exchange rate:

A55 $644
A55 + 18-55mm $701
A33 $448
A33 + 18-55mm $642
A900 $2559
70-300mm $949
70-400mm $2278
18-250mm $604

[InTheSky]

Thinking of future ... and fast has technology goes ...

Have you forget a APPLE iDSLR ... ? I'm pretty sure not ...

What about a small very thin NEX in Apple package white ... with a back iPad look ? This is the surprise that can change the market.

I'm pretty sure marketing people in Apple are thinking about how to re-invent the photography experience and to be able to capture most of the customer to buy this new product.

.

Frank

[bakubo]

Crocs is the company to watch. I predict big things in the camera realm from them before long. Keep your eyes peeled and be prepared for some major disruptive technology. You've been warned.

[KevinBarrett]

It's a horrible thought, but rewind in your mind and try to think how Sony might have been received if, say, the a700 and a900 had had main-sensor live view, like their contemporaries.

[DrScottNicol]

I just typed out a very detailed post that outlined (at great length) the reasons why Sony could be a good acquisition target for Apple.. then I closed the browser window by accident and lost it all lol. I really can't be bothered to retype it all but the very short and slightly glib version is..

Sony as a whole overlaps significantly with Apples space or -desired- space (phones, pc, tablets, digital media content such as music and films, computer games, TVs and via camera phones, photography) - you'll have to take my word for it when I say I had a paragraph on each of the above and why almost every separate Sony division would be potentially attractive to Apple

Also, apple has shed loads of cash ($60 Billion) and could buy Sony outright (worth about $35 billion) and Sony is quite vulnerable at the moment - (short term - Japan crisis, PSN network scandal, falling share price,- long term, troubles with PS3 not being the success it was hoped, failure of Sony to make convincing in roads to portable gaming sector, failure to take Walkman brand to leading position in portable music player sector, increased competition in core electronics sectors etc).

BUT I also went on to say it won't happen because its not Apple's style and it would be a very messy merger, something Apple traditionally stays clear of). Still, the idea of Apple buying SOMETHING in the camera sector (e.g. a small lens or sensor maker) and the birth of the iCAM is not that far fetched... (lets gloss over the Apple Quicktake Digicam .
Scott

[DrScottNicol]

Ignoring my iCAM idea above, the consumer SLR sector does seem to be ripe for another big shift along the lines of the 35mm film to digital move. The pro area is harder to crack due to the sheer investment Pros have in expensive lenses. Sony has shown itself to be quite innovative compared to Canikon in the consumer end but I don't think the NEX / SLT / EVF / Video capabilities are enough to snatch first place in and of themselves... My predictions (in some cases a little far fetched and possibly not 5 years down the line but 10-15 years) are as follows...

Convergence - Point and Shoots will be fully absorbed into phone / Media player devices. 'Proper' cameras will survive but The term DSLR will fade away and cameras will become Digital System Cameras (DSCs) or some such acronym.

Disruptive technologies - a truly disruptive tech will appear that just cuts the link to legacy glass (i.e. the tech won't work with old lenses AND the effect is so good that the non-pros will be prepared to move to the new cameras just to get the effect e.g. 3D that really works, non-glass 'liquid' lenses that can change shape to focus or change focal length, digital shutters / 'lenses' on chip - things like aperture, shutter speed merely become stylistic choices as the chip just takes in all the available light with a sensor with a similar or even greater dynamic range to the human eye and moulds it into an image of your choice). These tech will appear on high / mid range cameras at first then trickle down to entry level DSCs.

Photos in the Cloud - Cameras will become permanently connected to mobile internet - 3G (or 4/5G) will be built in, your pictures will instantly appear on your web service of choice AND have most post production done based on your own personal style / presets.

Holographic Prints - Holographic / 3D relief / diorama 'Prints' and 3D digital photo frames will become common place / cheap enough for the average user to purchase.

Consolidation / Acquisition - 5th, 6th and 7th place dSLR ranges just won't survive (and 3rd and 4th will 'universal' systems by multiple manufacturers e.g. u4/3, only done properly . Any manufacturer that doesn't have significant backing from a larger parent company AND a thorough background in optics AND electronics and sensors / processors will be absorbed by one of the other players or adopt a universal standard - strong brands might survive in name at least (i.e. in my head I see your new Sony a99 3D Cirrus Cloud Camera might have access to high end Zeiss 'Aqua Morph' lenses, mid range traditional Sony 3D-G lenses or easy choice 'plastic fantastic' Pentax micro zooms (the plastic referring to the new plastic optics, not just the mounts).

Scott

ps - Oh, all cameras will have Bluetooth - in the words of Sheldon Cooper - 'Everything is better with Bluetooth'

pps - and then, once the key events above have taken place, Apple will steal the best bits, stick the camera into a sexier case, offer it in black or white with a more user friendly interface and then stick an i in front of camera and take 50% of the market in 2 years .