Oly is still having problems

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bfitzgerald
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by bfitzgerald »

Pretty huge decline in sales. I'm not shocked though the cake has been getting smaller for some time now.
And it's not just compacts (that sector has dropped hugely, but other have too)

Something has to give somewhere. That's probably why we see a push on higher margin products esp premium compacts. As for the others lens sales might help ease the pain (good margins on these products) but people can only buy stuff so many times. I see even fairly serious invested DSLR users not updating bodies anywhere near as much as they used to. Enough resolution, enough DR, just about all of them are respectable in low light.

Why buy a new camera..those that do buy bargain hunt more looking at end of life products, less margins and smaller profits for the maker
I don't know about Olympus, they've put most of their eggs in the ILC market, and it's still not taking off in Europe from what I see.

Either way I expect a few makers to call it quits in the next few years my money is on Samsung (who are going nowhere in cameras bar silly crash price deals), and maybe Ricoh/Pentax who have failed to have any impact in the market despite some decent bodies.
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Greg Beetham
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

Canon probably got it right, saturation, only so many customers are of a kind that are willing to keep upgrading often as the camera makers bring their latest creations to market while a large percentage seem ok to just keep using the camera they already have unless they actually need to buy one for some reason or other.
There isn’t any compelling reason for them to keep buying cameras at the rate the camera companies hoped for now that most just use the one they already have handy all the time, which is convenient and adequate for casual usage.
That’s how it looks to me anyway.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t a little (discrete) meeting between the major players soon and then maybe model consolidation/reduction and prices going up and a lot less models being released, or more time between releases plus price increases, especially on accessories.
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bfitzgerald
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by bfitzgerald »

I'm not sure that will work Greg, if demand is down they can't hike prices across the board that only drives people into the arms of third part makers for other bits. Yongnuo have upped their game of late, they now offer a fully featured flash that's as good as OEM's at a lot less outlay. In other areas Tamron and Sigma have stepped up too. I don't think price gouging is going to work.

Less models might be an idea, less frequent updates another (so that people have something to update to) Nikon have milked the same model D3000/D5000 to death and even they will have to come up with something a bit more useful than very minor updates to crippled bodies. One reason I suspect Sony set the A77 release price at £999, they know it's not going to fly above that..once the price drops kick in it will be even cheaper

The milking the cow days are over and makers are going to have to try a lot more to get people's attention.
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by alphaomega »

There isn’t any compelling reason for them to keep buying cameras at the rate the camera companies hoped for now that most just use the one they already have handy all the time, which is convenient and adequate for casual usage.
Agree with that Greg Beetham. Most recent cameras can indeed "produce the goods". I really don't need a new camera for the work I do, but I am going to purchase one of those RX100III. When depends on the UK release price (still to be announced) and if crazy, when the price hits around £650. I use my RX100 a lot, but the lack of an EVF and the restricted wide stretch to 28mm only makes the RX100III very attractive. I don't really need the "machine gun shooting" of the Bionz X processor, but I like the refined processing introduced in the A7 series. I will not dispose of the RX100 though. I am impressed by the innovation now introduced into Sony's new cameras. I am glad i "stuck" with Sony and will not part with my A580/NEX-6 and 5N (nor with my A58). These are all very capable cameras in their own ways.
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Greg Beetham
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

A new model camera from Sony that is just an update of the current model is a Sony first I think Barry, but probably cost effective so the price stays at a reasonable level.
The A-mount is doomed contingent have been paying out on Sony because the A77 II wasn’t a huge advance using technology no one heard of before, or some advance over E-mount cameras that only A-mount has to itself, but then the price would have gone way back up to something like the original release price of the A77.
I think the camera makers don’t have much choice but to lift their prices if they are selling far fewer cameras but they will have to get together to do it, at the moment they are losing money for sure competing in the entry segment to the extent they are, depending on cheap cameras isn’t going to work and having a large model range won’t be cost effective in the future.
If they don’t get together and come to some agreement there will surely be victims.
That’s why I think the entry level cameras will get phased out and the prices of the eventual replacements will be higher because they will be a higher class of camera for one thing and they probably will make far fewer of them.
If they make a camera with better specs and they are not as plentiful then it will be harder for the discount places to play their usual games because there won’t be a huge backlog.
As far as third party accessory makers go it wouldn’t be difficult for camera makers to make their offerings not work as well as the genuine item, either that or wind down their own lens making facilities and sublet their requirements out, Sony seems to do that already as far as I can make out. If Sony has a lens making facility equivalent to Canon’s where is it?
Maybe Olympus is going to make some lenses for Sony? http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/its-offi ... -for-sony/ but nothing seems to have eventuated on that rumour so far, but even if they do I can’t see them being overly cheap.
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by peterottaway »

Greg, I think you are missing some of the argument. The differences between the A77 and the A77 II even on paper are greater than many other manufacturers "NEW" models - perhaps Sony is reacting to past criticisms about too many slightly different cameras in a short time. Sony seems to be now emphasizing continuity. The same goes for the RX 100 models. Would Canon or Nikon labelled the A7, A7s and A7r like that ?

Getting back to Olympus, I think in the current conditions there is probably room for either Fuji or Olympus but not both. It would appear that Fuji is more of a chance than Olympus at this stage. At the present Olympus has another promotion going with $200 to $300 reductions for camera bodies so you can't say they are not trying. They may be better off simply with their range of SLR lookalikes ( with Sony components ), dumping most compacts and becoming basically a lens house for Sony.
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

I think the A77II is more like an upgrade of an existing model than anything else you could imagine it to be, the previous grip even fits and works…supposedly. And as far as I know (apart from the E-mount models), that’s the first time in A-mount that Sony has done that after the previous model had been in the wild for a couple of years.
They didn’t do it for the A700 and should have.
Yes they went through a period where they released a bunch of models with slight variations all at the same time and they did that a couple of times at least, but this is different behaviour I think.
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bfitzgerald
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by bfitzgerald »

I think the A77 mk II is as much an upgrade as most people could expect, big buffer, brand new AF system, lots of tweaks (I'm reading the instruction manual downloaded from Sony) audio levels, ability to see steadyshot effect in viewfinder, lots of other bits I've yet to fully work out. And yes the grip is the same as the A77 (for once)

I don't see it as a bad move (bar taking the GPS and AF assist out), not at all. I'm just saying the market is mature now. As I own neither body but am looking to acquire a more up to date second body to run with the A57, I have not yet decided what to buy.
Whilst all those bits are nice, they are offset by reality. If you are a serious sports/action/wildlife shooter I'm sure the A77 II will be a very solid purchase choice. And I'm not complaining that there is at least another body to get down the road for A mount users. Everyone has different needs and honestly I can't see a reason for what I'm doing photo wise where I would buy the A77 II at a £400 premium over the older model.

I've not even decided if I want to buy an A77 on a blowout deal, or if I'm better off with another A57 or other body. Good enough is a massive problem in the industry those extra bells and whistles are great "if" you need them, more often than not some do not. That's a problem for camera makers. If Canon do a 7d MK II (which they will evidently) I expect on sensor AF like the 70d, the buffer is pretty big on the original 7d, a new sensor more mp, certainly I expect a beefed up AF system.

If Nikon ever do a D400 is open to debate too. I just can't help think that for "most of us" we're at a point where we have lots of resolution, good enough AF and low light performance, mostly good enough in every way. It's getting harder and harder to keep selling people the same thing..with tweaks and upgrades.

Entry level won't go away because it's important for makers to have this, the hook and line for future users buying higher up the food chain. I see so many EOS 1100d's around it's quite amazing..true many don't buy anything else..but some do and it works which is why Canon are selling it so cheaply.

All I'm saying is the market is mature now..we've had a lot of evolution so that even die hard pixel fans can't complain. Not much left to do really..down the road newer types of sensor no doubt. That's it really..lots of years of development and the industry has ridden the sales bubble and the party is now over. The only way to really get more sales is to lower margins, that's how I see it. Cheaper prices

For some reason the camera industry thinks it can buck the electronics trend over the last few decades and it can't. Go back 15-20 years and TV's hifi's, computers and other tech electronic goods were expensive. Now they are all "dirt" cheap
I can built a pc or buy a laptop for peanuts v what I would have paid back then..huge price difference.

The camera industry cannot continue to ignore that reality, these are mass produced products that are basically overpriced..and with the last 5 years or so of economic issues worldwide they got a firm slap in the face with a dose of real world problems.
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by alphaomega »

Agree, there are too many players in a market squeezed by smartphones from one end and adequate technology from the other. Some will disappear.
Looking at my own recent decisions I did not think I needed the RX100II to replace my RX100, but the RX100III interests me as it can basically replace my NEX-6 for walkaround with 24-70mm reach and EVF in a smaller envelope and weight. Frankly, I cannot spot any important difference in IQ between the two. The A6000 is not of interest as not enough improvement over a well performing NEX-6. Don't need the Wi-Fi stuff. I bought an A58 earlier in the year because of steady shot for video missing in my NEX-6. Also it provides EVF viewing and AF compared with my A580 for video. So I will eventually purchase that RX100III because of its 24mm starting point at the wide end and nifty EVF in a small package. That will really be it for me. Maybe a lens at some point. I will then have the RX100 & RX100III for easy walk about. NEX-6 & 5N in a light package where I need extreme wide angle and telephoto as well and A580 with lenses from 15mm to 450mm reach (but too heavy for lengthy walkabout). Add to that the A58 for video and that's it Sony. All my possible requirements will be covered for a long time. Can't see any gaps to be filled on still or video. So, yes I am probably a microcosm of what is happening. Saturation of the market. Only hope new entrants and people with gaps, waiting for the money to enter their wallets.
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Greg Beetham
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

I’m not saying the entry model will disappear overnight but it will go away eventually I’m pretty sure, unless they make that model in N Korea for peanuts which earns the parent company hardly anything and hardly worthwhile making anyway.
The only plus for an entry model is as you say Barry it gets the mount into the hands of someone at least.

The photographic industry is in free-fall, it requires getting the head around what is really going on, they will have to restructure dramatically soon, maybe as soon as they can get rid of the current backlog or cut it down to size one way or another, giving away entry models at or near cost is one way, as long as they get enough to cover costs I guess they will figure they got away with a whole skin, but it’s going to clog the system with even more cameras that people won’t need to replace for some time.

Alphaomeaga you fall into the group that camera makers keep making incrementally better models for who can tell the difference between the last model and the new one, the vast majority don’t have the knowledge or the detailed interest they just buy a camera if they need one and the price looks good, those customers aren’t in a growth market anymore, and it used to be the largest.
The market you are in will probably remain fairly stable for some time I’d guess but even some in that market won’t want a new camera unless it has some exceptional attributes that make it irresistible…for them, I like cameras too but I don’t feel compelled to buy one unless one comes along that has the attributes that I want.

So even in the enthusiast market there is a good deal of selectivity and specialization and the makers probably have a tougher time in that bracket trying to come up with something that will trigger a buying response because those customers look at cameras a lot more closely than just the price tag and the brand name.
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by bakubo »

Another good post, I think:

http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/53695618

If we add each year to the last, we end up with a cumulative total of over a billion digital cameras shipped. There are two caveats to remember... first, some do break, so there are fewer than a billion in working order, and second, CIPA is NOT the only source for digital cameras. All the cameras made in Europe, China, and South Korea are not included in those numbers. Those cameras would more than offset the unusable cameras, so I feel pretty confident that there are over a billion digital cameras in working order.

The significance of this cumulative number is that the potential market is finite. There are seven billion people on the planet and a large proportion of them cannot afford ANY digital camera, much less a full frame DSLR or high end MILC camera. 40% of the world's population actually live on less than $2 per day. And a whopping 80% live on less than $10 a day! So you can remove them as potential customers.
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Greg Beetham
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

bakubo wrote:Another good post, I think:

http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/53695618

If we add each year to the last, we end up with a cumulative total of over a billion digital cameras shipped. There are two caveats to remember... first, some do break, so there are fewer than a billion in working order, and second, CIPA is NOT the only source for digital cameras. All the cameras made in Europe, China, and South Korea are not included in those numbers. Those cameras would more than offset the unusable cameras, so I feel pretty confident that there are over a billion digital cameras in working order.

The significance of this cumulative number is that the potential market is finite. There are seven billion people on the planet and a large proportion of them cannot afford ANY digital camera, much less a full frame DSLR or high end MILC camera. 40% of the world's population actually live on less than $2 per day. And a whopping 80% live on less than $10 a day! So you can remove them as potential customers.
Yes that is a good point, and a huge problem for the human race, of the 4 billion added to the population in the last half century the majority are destitute with a very bleak outlook and won’t ever be making a decision about which camera to buy, the question won’t arise, their immediate and future concern is just survival.
Greg
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bfitzgerald
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by bfitzgerald »

Well Greg like it or not we live in a consumer world, where we are persuaded to buy items (most of which if we are honest we don't really need)
For a long time there has been a marked move towards manufacture of products in the far east, no doubt due to the low labour costs.

There are ethical issues here, of that there is no question.
As far as consumer electronics go having had a chat with a recent IBM employee (software engineer) he basically said IBM dumped their hardware pc business (ie to Lenovo and the hard drive stuff) simply because the margins are "low".

For hardware there are only 2 ways to go..either do an Apple or Dyson ie market the hell out of your product and convince people it's worth paying a premium price for (and it works for those makers)

Or do a Gillette and sell the cameras cheap to get people hooked in, then gouge them on the lenses and accessories
The camera market is a combination of both approaches, premium compacts have good margins (cost is low to make and they get decent prices) ditto for higher end SLR bodies quite good margins I would think. Low priced compacts are a dead end in many ways, too many out there, low margins, poor demand and you have nothing to sell people after they buy it (bar maybe a spare battery)
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by classiccameras »

My bet is, there will be a hostile take over of Olympus [or at least the camera division ] and probably not by Canikon.
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bfitzgerald
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Re: Oly is still having problems

Unread post by bfitzgerald »

Problem being if they're not making money who wants to buy it? Unless you can turn it around it loses money each year, that's not sustainable.
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