Nikon, Olympus, Sony reported their 3rd quarter results

[bakubo]

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/the ... sults.html

So where are we?

The two largest camera makers reported profits: Canon and Nikon. Both reported declining profits.
The next four largest camera makers reported losses.
Inventories of cameras built up at most of the companies.
Average selling price per unit went down at all companies that reported it.
Market shares aren't moving much as the overall market volume declines.

This is a heap of bad news. Basically every company has serious problems they're facing in selling cameras.

[mvanrheenen]

So, what does that mean? If these losses will keep up, Olympus and Sony may think about selling the camera divisions.

Reading all the negative posts about the future of Sonys camera division, I get the feeling I should be buying some A-mount cameras before they abandon them.

[Greg Beetham]

I could be wrong but I’m not sure that any sensible corporate entity would actually want to buy a loss making camera division nowadays, not unless they think it’s cool to make losses, but hey, who said corporations did sensible things most of the time anyhow.
Greg

[Dusty]

I could be wrong but I’m not sure that any sensible corporate entity would actually want to buy a loss making camera division nowadays, not unless they think it’s cool to make losses, but hey, who said corporations did sensible things most of the time anyhow.
Greg

I think there are lot of companies that buy loss making companies. They're know as 'turnaround experts', and if they think they can turn it around and make $, they will.

Sony is spending too much money on trying to change things that people don't want changed, and not addressing issues that people have.

As I've often said, take the 700 body - R&D paid for already - and slap in a 18 - 20 MP sensor, tilting screen -R&D already paid for - and add a few tweaks, like micro focus adjustments.

You'll have a winner, it won't cost a bundle to produce, and you make profit on it.

Instead, they switch to SLT, switch out the hot shoe, and wonder why they can't sell cameras. No one asked for that! What we wanted was an a700 replacement, in a timely manner!

Stupid is as stupid does!

Dusty

[Dr. Harout]

...As I've often said, take the 700 body - R&D paid for already - and slap in a 18 - 20 MP sensor, tilting screen -R&D already paid for - and add a few tweaks, like micro focus adjustments.

You'll have a winner, it won't cost a bundle to produce, and you make profit on it.

Instead, they switch to SLT, switch out the hot shoe, and wonder why they can't sell cameras. No one asked for that! What we wanted was an a700 replacement, in a timely manner!

Stupid is as stupid does!

Dusty

That is a fine argument, Dusty, but I do not agree with you.
I think that the future (and a very near one) is with EVF. Yes, I do agree that EVF will become better and probably they have a lot to evolve yet, but that doesn't mean that today's EVF are bad.
I do think also that in the same time mirror will be something from the past. So you are left with a sensor and a lens, thus diminishing the register (flange, distance from the mount plane to the sensor). And I do know that by that time on-sensor AF will be so evolved and perfected that the SLT thing will become a thing of the past too.
Meanwhile, we are stuck with it. And if Sony didn't opt for the SLT, I guess A-mount users would've steadily decreased.
Also, whoever tried the EVF, most of them are quite happy and from them probably a lot will never return to OVF (and that includes me).
I do acknowledge that there are strong points for OVF, but EVF has lots of them too. Each has its strong and weak points, but my friend, for aging eyes, I'm afraid EVF wins.
There are and there will be people changing system due to novelties (progress, let us say), but the opposite also holds true.
Let me mention one thing: here in Armenia photography = Canon, so anyone with a Sony "doesn't understand" (this holds true for all other countries too ), but nowadays I see more and more photographers staring at the "other side". The new generation is more prone to EVF.
I say, NEX is a great move, SLT is a daring one (but not a looser, mind you).
As for rangefinder camera or EVF-ed ILC that would be another debate.

P.S.: why am I initiating such a debate? Simple. To keep this forum active...

[artington]

I think you are bang on the money here, Dr H. Yes, OVFs have better shadow delineation than EVFs but that will change. Film had better dynamic range than digital sensors but now we have up to 14EV DR with some sensors (at base ISO) and that I think tops any film ever made,including Kodacolor 64. Yes, SLT mirrors are surely (hopefully) temporary but a necessary stage before hybrid AF becomes a given with sensors - and Sony leads the way here with the A99. Mirrorless is clearly the future although I suspect that telephoto lens physics mean we will have to live for some time with a physical mismatch between long lenses and small bodies although in-body stabilisation may help by obviating the need for some of the bulk of IS in the lens. Fascinating times.

[Greg Beetham]

I still think Sony made a mistake discontinuing OVF DSLR’s, I suppose their thinking was people who have existing A-mount lenses mostly will just buy what’s on offer and not be bothered about the EVF being the only game in town.
Some say the A580 was good enough to replace the A700 but I don’t think so, not in the same class, yes it’s a good camera but the OVF isn’t in the same league as the A700’s, and there are other fundamental differences, group/ratio flash control, sync speed-high class shutter, tethering, Q-nav, WB bracket, DRO bracket, SSS switch, C button, Exposure mode switch, AF mode selector and probably other things, point is the A700 is a 7 class camera not a 5 and it shows.
I still like my smaller lighter KM5D & A100 for general use of course because they retain features that were lost on successive 5’s and I use those more often than the A700 because of that, but if I am going to do something important it’s the A700 with its f2.8/5.6 combo central focus point that will be used.
As Dusty says the A700 was work already done so to a great extent they only had to revamp it for sensors that could do LV which came into production after the A700 was produced. If you want to retain the very desirable A700 OVF while having the LV option there is only one solution that makes sense, have LV on the rear screen only of course (with MF focus peaking too) & (when LV is selected the mirror goes up and the shutter opens), the mirror has to REMAIN there when the shutter is fired, not flip down and up and down like all the other OVF LV Sony’s did. (DUMB)
And the rear screen should swing sideways and swivel, not up behind the flash or down behind the tripod. (DUMB) (Also the screen should have orientation that’s in sync with camera orientation)
When it comes to D300 and 7 class APS-C cameras I think their (Nikon-Sony) thinking was there are no dedicated high class fast lenses for DX format, they are all FF lenses, so it makes more sense to offer a FF camera that could be used in crop mode for APS-C and also native FF when required and that’s why I think the D400 has been so slow to appear and the A77 was nearly a nonstarter.
The mysterious thing about the A77 is it was made with a 24MP sensor with high processing overheads at fast frame rates, which not only places higher demands on battery consumption with an EVF but introduced extra lag in the EVF at critical moments, also buffer overruns, thus negating the attraction for many for the sporty APS-C format, it should have been made with the acclaimed 16MP sensor. (Another DUMB)
Another reason for the reluctance to produce a high class APS-C camera is it has the capability to attack the sales of the mid-range FF cameras because the price for the smaller format cameras is always going to be less than the larger format camera, so if you introduce economy of scale into the equation and make a dual purpose FF mid-range camera only and drop the equivalent APS-C one the price will come down on the FF camera through unit production/higher sales over a longer market life span…possibly.
Anyway I would be interested in a well-made A700B just the same, I have no justification for spending $3000 on an A99 body to get a decent proxy APS-C/FF camera and the quirky A77 just is no replacement for the A700, sorry but I don’t think so, not for me anyway.
Greg

[Dusty]

...The new generation is more prone to EVF.
I say, NEX is a great move, SLT is a daring one (but not a looser, mind you).
As for rangefinder camera or EVF-ed ILC that would be another debate.

P.S.: why am I initiating such a debate? Simple. To keep this forum active...

Doc, the next gen is prone to EVF because they were brought up on cell phone cameras. The serious ones will sooner or later pursue something better, wich for many just may be NEX

NEX is a good move for Sony, but not what I'm looking for. I love the short register and adapter concept, and maybe some day someone will refine it to a mount-less body with interchangeable mounts that snap on. However, how much money is Sony making on NEX? And how about in a year, after people figured out they broke the system with the new flash shoe? One step forward, 2 back...

SLT may die, and it may die simply because Sony tried is as a 'take it or leave it' proposition for the Alpha mount. It's not doing well in sales. The reasons are manifold - lack of lens lineup, breaking the system, overpriced, etc. If the Alpha line dies, Canonikontex will say - see it was SLT that killed it, and stick w/ OVF. That may not be the only reason, but when you have someone who's such an Alpha aficionado as DK switching to Nikon, where does that put you?

I know, it's not a wholesale switch, but he can't find an Alpha mount to sit Shirley's needs, so that's a start. There are very few people who can afford to have multiple lines of cameras, so if one system doesn't provide what they need, they'll switch systems.

Sony could have continued the OVF line and even made good money on it by minor upgrades to existing bodies, but they instead chose to go whole hog for SLTs. That cost them followers. When your the little guy, you can't afford to lose market share. If they would have done that, they could then have held their market share while perfecting the SLT. Why do you think Toyota didn't stop making gasoline powered cars and just switch to all Prius like hybrids? Because they knew they would lose their shirt! Sony is not as smart.

Dusty

[Greg Beetham]

Another DUMB was back when Sony screwed up the Minolta Macro flash system and tried to substitute a super expensive LED ring light of their own in place of the Ring-flash component (that they deleted) from the Macro flash system, might as well list that one too.
Its behavior like that that leads one to think that Sony regards their customers with contempt, what other conclusion can one draw? Especially since they ignore any requests for information as to the why it was done?
I wonder if they wonder why they don’t have much more success outside of Japan with market penetration of the A-mount with SLT's, the A99 caused barely a ripple of interest on the DPR forum in percentage of clicks on new camera announcements, actually I don’t think it even got on the list at any stage, doesn’t that say something?
Greg

[mvanrheenen]

We all know that Asian corporate strategies differ a lot from Western ones. The biggest example of this is probably Toyota. Decades ago, western management scholars all looked up to the way Toyota managed to boost productivity and profits by using their own take on how to manage their company. On of the things they did, and still do, is by listening to what competitors and customers in the market segments they operate are doing and what they want.

Projecting this on Sony, as a global corporation with market segments being all the continents, you should think they would deploy the same strategies as Toyota. Nothing seems further from that as far as Sony is concerned. They seem only interested in the Asian market, if at all.

[bakubo]

I posted these articles awhile back in another thread. They are interesting in the parts talking about the way Japanese camera companies design their cameras and why.

Why CP+ Was So Grim

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/why ... -grim.html

The dpreview Interviews With Japanese Camera Company Executives

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/the ... views.html

[bfitzgerald]

My analysis on this...
As per Thom's site only Canikon are making a profit in imaging (less profit but they are in the black)
It seems everyone else is making a loss, and that is obviously not sustainable for any business model.

I can't see some makers being able to continue indefinitely on their current path. My predictions are:

-Samsung will eventually bow out of digital imaging (years down the road) their NX has been a costly flop it's not even selling well at blow out prices let alone full retail.

-Ricoh are falling off the face of the Earth, their GXR was the wrong product at the wrong time, and they have been wiped out in the premium compact market by other makers they have no new products to show.

-Pentax who are owned by Ricoh I'm not sure how this is going to work out for both of them, if they can pull off something impressive full frame wise there is some hope but it's unlikely that Pentax will ever be in a strong enough position to be very profitable despite some nice enough products they're going nowhere in APS-C DSLR land.

-Olympus has serious financial issues but are tied in with Panasonic in micro 4/3. It would not be unimaginable IMO that Panasonic will eventually take over Olympus at least in digital imaging. Whilst Panasonic has had it's own problems with consumer electronics they have a big enough credit card to ride things out.

-Casio, a bit player who IMO has like Ricoh fallen asleep and too small to survive in the market long term I expect them to quit imaging they are already mostly irrelevant to buyers

-Fujifilm...they are not making a profit either, but are coming out with some good ideas and seem to be doing ok in the premium compact/superzoom market and their ILC system is different enough to survive longer term. They seem to have enough revenue coming in from other sources to ride this one out.

-Nikon, they seem to be big enough to handle the problems but I don't expect them to take no.1 spot from Canon

Sony IMO will look at the sales figures and say NEX is doing better than SLT and they will stop making A mount cameras (in a year or 2) and have NEX E mount bodies try the "4/3 to micro 4/3" Olympus strategy of just using one mount. E mount. They might offer a more DSLR ish bigger E mount body with no mirror at all and off the sensor phase detect and have an adaptor for A mount to E mount to try to hold onto some of their A mount users. Everything Sony has done lately indicates they are putting more resources into E mount (firmware updates favouring E mount users), rumours of FF E mount bodies. I could be wrong but that is how I see it.

Canon, too big a player to roll over and die they will continue to be the no.1 for DSLR products.

General stuff:
I expect less of the p&s compacts as profits are non existent on these products
I'd imagine makers will start to use bigger sensors that have better IQ so as to try to differentiate between smartphone cameras and dedicated compact cameras
3-4 makers are doomed in digital the market isn't big enough for them
ILC sales will level off in a few years and we won't see the massive growth we have done, some players like Samsung will leave eventually. Sony will see this as an area where they can hold a decent market share v Oly/Canon/Nikon/Pannie so that is where they will put most of their effort
DSLR arena will eventually only have 2 players. Canon and Nikon. I can't see Pentax being able to sustain their position unless there are huge changes in strategy.
Full frame DSLR's eventually replace higher end APS-C models, body only prices for a FF will hit £1000 and lower in a year or so (this is where DSLR makers will try to grab growth in the market)

Which leaves us with..well if things pan out as above I would run up the hill and look for cover under the big gun (Canon) Those who are ok with CSC's or ILC's might be ok with NEX, I'd imagine a large portion of A Mount users will eventually move to Canon or Nikon.

On the Sony side of things I'm more in line with Dusty's view here. I don't think it was a smart move dumping OVF's (let's remember it's not hurting Canikon having OVF products) I doubt SLT sales have exceeded their normal DSLR market share so nothing has really changed for Sony except they've chopped and changed quite a bit and probably annoyed a large number of their users. I don't see Sony taking serious sales off the top 2 makers. They seem completely oblivious to the changing full frame market in DSLR's and are not effectively competing with the A99 either.

I see a FF NEX product that might do quite well in it's own market, but it is not likely to be a product that most dedicated DSLR users will want. I think A mount users should start to make plans for a future without a native A Mount.

[mvanrheenen]

Nice analysis Barry and I generally agree with your standpoint.

If you are correct in the future for Sony a-mount, I think a lot of users would be rather pissed, myself included. Spending a lot of hard earned cash in a system that has not been around long enough to mature was a gamble, I knew that when I started with a-mount. But the system being discontinued before it could even become mature is a b*tch!

I'll start saving some money to donate to Canon in the future

[Birma]

Well, it all feels a bit premature to me. To me it seems like a great time to be an A-mount shooter. Five current A mount bodies, all of which seem very capable and getting good reviews. Sony are releasing far more innovative products in my view than Canikon. They have to, otherwise they would be going the way of Pentax. Remembering the time when we had nothing except the A230 or A400 to get excited about, I think things seem much more positive now.

[Greg Beetham]

I don’t know about the NEX being a hot seller on a continuous basis either, the main reason it initially sold so well was because of the adaptor appeal, lots of old lenses brought back to life and used on current ones as well, also lots of people bought one as a second camera, some as a main camera.
What remains to be seen is will all those people keep buying new model NEX’s as they appear or instead now they have one for whatever purpose they got it for just leave it at that.
I guess quite a few will buy another one if they see that the new one is definitely a worthwhile upgrade, some might even decide to get the upgraded A-mount adaptor, but some might not get on the patchy upgrade/compatibility merry go round too.

Sure the NEX is trendy, but there are people who want functionality, responsiveness and a decent interface instead of trendy so there might even be some who won’t bother buying a NEX yet, but might delay it until the E-mount matures a bit, or until Sony decides there is going to be no more systemic changes that cause incompatibilities with previously purchased accessories.
There could even be some holdouts who can resist the allure of a NEX altogether however unlikely that might be.

So I am thinking that after the initial sales for a few years where the NEX gradually filled up that vacant spot in everyone’s photographic existence the NEX will taper off in sales volume. Unless Sony manages to convince everyone that it is a credible alternative mount in its own right that is, and can not only challenge the A-mount but other mounts as well.
To do that it would need a full system of native E-mount lenses at least equivalent to what is available for the A-mount (in order to phase out the making of A-mount lenses gradually).

And if Sony intends to wind down the A-mount and replace it with the E-mount they might have to think about introducing a more DSLR-ish body at some point too, for those who might like a larger body with more dedicated buttons and increased battery capacity.

It might be a while before a 300/2.8G and 500/4G appear in E-mount but there is always the adaptor route for the few people who want to use those.
There already is a FF E-mount, the VG-900, all someone has to do now is find a use for it.
Greg