Mirrorless rumours

Specifically for the discussion of the A-mount DSLR range
Forum rules
No more than three images or three external links allowed in any post or reply. Please trim quotations and do not include images in quotes unless essential.
agorabasta
Viceroy
Posts: 1198
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:41 pm

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby agorabasta » Mon Jun 03, 2013 11:49 am

NevHi wrote:Graphene Image Sensor 1000X More Sensitive to Light Than Current Sensors

Let me translate this claim - '1000X more sensitive' = 1000X more output voltage per photon, same or worse quantum efficiency.

No practical use for photography. Cannot handle bright light. May get some use wherever low power consumption is needed and the light is very dim, as it saves on preamp power consumption. That's about all of it.

There will be no revolutions in sensor tech beyond foveonish/organic designs and maybe some curved geometry sensors. That's in the foreseeable future.

There may be a real revolution in some distant future if they ever manage to make a sensor able to measure the light wave parameters without absorbing it photon-by-photon, i.e. - sub-photonically. That would allow complete reproduction of the light wavefront as seen by the sensor at capture without any losses to quantisation and focusing. That is theoretically possible.

User avatar
bfitzgerald
Subsuming Vortex of Brilliance
Posts: 3689
Joined: Fri Sep 26, 2008 10:48 pm

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby bfitzgerald » Mon Jun 03, 2013 1:00 pm

It is possible that Sony have a new sensor, I doubt it's anything as dramatic as that type of sensor.
They did file patents for foveon like sensors a while back. Still problem remains ie no actual product vapour-ware as we call it ;-)

User avatar
Greg Beetham
Tower of Babel
Posts: 6155
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 3:25 pm
Location: Townsville, Qld. Australia
Contact:

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby Greg Beetham » Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:35 pm

If the NTU sensor comes to pass at 1000X sensitivity running on low voltage and cheaper to manufacture it will make present day sensors museum pieces virtually overnight in quite a few applications, night vision stuff for sure.
But as agorabasta says it would have a problem in daylight use, at that sensitivity you would probably need an ND filter to photograph the aurora, never mind bright daylight photography.
Maybe they can tame it with the right filter overlay for daylight who knows, but I doubt Sony would let that one pass by, if they don’t grab it some other company surely will.
Greg

agorabasta
Viceroy
Posts: 1198
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:41 pm

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby agorabasta » Mon Jun 03, 2013 3:26 pm

Greg,

You need to capture as many photons as possible to minimise the photon noise that's there due to the randomness of the photon hits. So using an ND to lower the total photon count is no way to quality image capture. Like I said - no use for general photography, at all.

User avatar
Greg Beetham
Tower of Babel
Posts: 6155
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 3:25 pm
Location: Townsville, Qld. Australia
Contact:

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby Greg Beetham » Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:44 pm

Agorabasta, saying you need an ND filter to capture the Aurora was meant as a joke, (I guess you need a sense of humour to ‘get it’) but anyway who can say how the technology might be re-designed or adapted for daylight use, if they can block the daylight IR saturation (too many photons) that might be a start.
Greg

agorabasta
Viceroy
Posts: 1198
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:41 pm

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby agorabasta » Mon Jun 03, 2013 8:01 pm

Greg,

There really is no place to stick a joke in. The current methods of photonic capture are at their theoretical limits.

I don't like it (I mean the state of thought) as it is here and now (since the hit of total globalisation got upon us all - that 'here&now' is all the planet and the vicinity) - there's absolutely no chance for free thought/invention to ever happen otherwise than globally (means - whenever everybobby's happy with that).

Now, I hate it, period.

User avatar
bfitzgerald
Subsuming Vortex of Brilliance
Posts: 3689
Joined: Fri Sep 26, 2008 10:48 pm

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby bfitzgerald » Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:58 am

Whilst the sensor aspect is interesting, ultimately it's about the system as a whole, range of models/bodies, flash system, lens range. Even with a swanky great sensor there is quite a bit of work for Sony to do here. I've read reports about the new Sony HVL-F60M coming to a halt due to over heating (SB900 style) £400 flash too. Sony should embrace the radio flash of the Canon 600EX-RT for their top end model, they need a new mid level model too. Lens range, well we've been over this before and there are gaps that need sorting out. Copy Nikon's CLS system as it's very robust just do the radio thing too. Winner all around.

Bottom line is Sony can have the nicest sensor around, but if they don't have the system to go with it, this so called new model assault is going to grind to a halt fairly quickly. Even more so if they are planning a FF rampage, this type of user is discerning and will spot weak points very quickly in the system.

classiccameras
Viceroy
Posts: 922
Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby classiccameras » Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:57 pm

I have to aggree, great as Sony sensors are, its only part of the story, we need a complete system with lenses people want flash equipment they want and the performance they want at the prices they want.

FF is the smallest section of Sony's DSLR market, not only must it be right but it has to stand out above its rivals and at a 'come and buy me' price. At this level, high end pro lenses are essential, just relying on a couple of lenses stamped 'Zeiss' is not good enough.
I cannot see Sony ever overtaking or even equalling Canikon in the FF market, so what they have to market is a FF camera with cutting edge features and a great backup of equipment. I suspect Sony will be unwilling to invest huge sums in a system to compete with Canikon especially FF, but they are possibly able to fill a niche as Pentax is doing.

User avatar
Greg Beetham
Tower of Babel
Posts: 6155
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 3:25 pm
Location: Townsville, Qld. Australia
Contact:

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby Greg Beetham » Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:22 am

What I’ve been wondering right from the start with this mirror-less rumour is why would Sony want two parallel mirror-less systems that both essentially do the same thing? One in A-mount and one in E-mount.
And the system that is least capable of being a success after converting to mirror-less is, guess which one?
So what would be the point of running the risk of downgrading performance in the one system that is closest to being an actual photographic system? It hasn’t made a lot of sense to me…so far.
Maybe Sony has some secret on sensor PDAF system up its sleeve that will make all A-mount lenses focus as quickly and as accurately as any of the fastest DSLR’s, with zero VF latency to match.
That would work, actually come to think of it no camera maker in their right mind would do anything other than exactly that so I think we can breathe easy that Sony has it all under control…as usual.
Greg

classiccameras
Viceroy
Posts: 922
Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby classiccameras » Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:15 am

Greg
You make some very valid points re the two systems with the same technology, but i'm not sure Sony are quite ready yet to put all their eggs in one [E] basket like Olympus did [and it didn't quite do for them what they were hoping], and cross their fingers that people will switch to the new system in their droves. According to one set of figures, M4thirds is out selling the NEX system by some margin although its recognised that the NEX system is the best CSC on the market. If technological progress means both A and E mounts use the same system, its more about not having one system inferior to the other. They must both be meritorious and deliver the goods in their own right. The market place has never been more fragmented than in camera sales, with definite groups forming for one format or another. Some sections are growing and others shrinking. Good idea or bad idea, I cannot see the A mount being dropped any time soon, it would alienate too many a mount users round the world and Sony can not suffer another exodus to other brands, its a risk they will not take.

The A58 is a joke, but its serving a purpose for Sony and only they know what.
My biggest wish for any new A mount body and it would make a lot of sense is having a Hybrid OVF like Fuji have done.
Sony are only to aware that the largest photographic group in the world are mobile [cell] phone users. All holding a wafer thin bit of plastic at arms length to take pictures, goodness knows how they frame the pictures properly or perhaps they don't care. Being old school, I always break out into a grin when I see it. They have probably never held any other photographic device in their lives. How does Sony and the other manufacturers win these people over with 'proper' cameras, TV advertising as Nikon are doing now with the tiny Coolpix point and shoot models. So is the NEX design such a bad idea, probably not for a market that will be more receptive to the idea that small is best, Not for me though.

User avatar
mikeriach
Imperial Ambassador
Posts: 666
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Aberdeen

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby mikeriach » Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:50 pm

Greg, I hope your visions are just a figment of your imagination ;)

If the DLSR/SLT style body and A mount was dropped, then I would completely abandon Sony. Simply I cannot work with NEX style bodies so I'd switch lock stock and barrel to one of the "inferior" conventional systems.

Cheers,
Mike
Only an A77II and Tamron 16-300 left sadly. Sony cannot supply what I want so rightly or wrongly I've branched out to someone who does and I'm very happy.

User avatar
Greg Beetham
Tower of Babel
Posts: 6155
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 3:25 pm
Location: Townsville, Qld. Australia
Contact:

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby Greg Beetham » Wed Jun 05, 2013 2:08 pm

Sorry Mike, I can’t help wondering what would happen to the A-mount if this silly rumour did come to pass.
Greg

classiccameras
Viceroy
Posts: 922
Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby classiccameras » Wed Jun 05, 2013 4:35 pm

My local Sony shop thinks it will be just NEX from next year with possibly an adaptor to fit A mount lenses, FF may be an exception to that plan. As Mike said, no way can I work with NEX, the A37 is the smallest I wish to go. I wouldn't think Canon or Nikon owners consider themselves inferior to Sony, the other way round is more likely.

User avatar
Greg Beetham
Tower of Babel
Posts: 6155
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 3:25 pm
Location: Townsville, Qld. Australia
Contact:

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby Greg Beetham » Wed Jun 05, 2013 5:22 pm

I’m not really getting the reason for it maybe Sony thinks that mirror-less is ‘in’ (odd though, p&s are mirror-less and they are in decline, possibly the thinking is mirror-less is ‘in’ in ILC’s) based on the success of the NEX so the thing to do is morph the A-mount into a make-believe mirror-less too.
Using current mirror-less performance as a guide it doesn’t stand much of a chance of being an enhancement to system performance (especially with legacy screw drive lenses and possibly other accessories).
Result = Sony loses customers…again. (wins some voyeurs but loses more in the end)
And worse for many, the value of legacy lenses would take a hit. (but good for the voyeurs)
On the other hand maybe Sony has something in mirror-less (maybe like the Holy Grail or a medium sized miracle) that will work as well as or better than any previous DSLR, and do it with legacy lenses also.
Result = Sony cleans Canon and Nikon’s clock. :lol:
I do hope they can pull it off actually, but Sony does have a habit of overestimating the performance of things in advance, not always perhaps, but it does happen. (I think they get hypnotized by their own hype)
Greg

User avatar
bfitzgerald
Subsuming Vortex of Brilliance
Posts: 3689
Joined: Fri Sep 26, 2008 10:48 pm

Re: Mirrorless rumours

Unread postby bfitzgerald » Wed Jun 05, 2013 6:22 pm

Well Greg Thom Hogan has an interesting article up:
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/and ... -four.html

Bottom line mirrorless/ILC cameras have bottomed out, the rapid growth of a few years back is "over" ground to a halt.
Meanwhile DSLR's are holding up, reality check is as many said...ILC's won't replace DSLR's. Tough times for the camera market overall and much predicted by myself ;-) (too many makers jumped in here hoping to make a quick buck, party is over now!)

Smaller is not always more practical for the needs of some users. Whilst he says he thinks it will all be mirror less at one point, he gives no time frame for that.
I see no movement from anyone else to whip out the mirror (K-01 was a sales flop and not replaced) Canikon have nothing at all even rumoured in the pipe line for DSLR ish EVF type products. Maybe they will in a few years, maybe not.

Sony are banking on being there first. Problem for them is even if everyone else does away with the mirror (Canikon cannot and will not dump their mounts for DSLR's that would be suicide) how will Sony compete there? Like I said they have to "nail down these silly niggles" sort the flash/lens range out, get it done dusted and by offering more "bang per buck", if they don't Sony will just wander along ticking at around 10 % market share, a far cry from the "we'll take number 2" talk years back. For mirrorless to work for Sony they would have to be really eating into Canikon's sales, they're not with SLT and they probably won't with the new stuff next year.

Sony's SLT/mirror-less offensive is like operation "Wacht am Rhein", they're throwing everything they can lay their hands on in there, but the outcome can be predicted long before the battle is over. Bold yes, on paper impressive..but ultimately won't really make any difference in the DSLR market at all.

People are not going to dump their Canon 5dMkIII for a NEX, they're not going to dump their higher end APS-C for an ILC either. ILC market has limited growth as the users who buy them typically don't flesh out the system to DSLR levels. Not that I knock them, it just suits a certain type of user just like a DSLR does. Yes you get the odd OM-D switcher who's loving it and can live with no FF body like this:
http://www.thephoblographer.com/2012/06 ... om-d-e-m5/

That's great..each to his own needs.
ILC's don't replace DSLR's said it years back and it's proven a rock solid prediction. Paypal donations accepted :mrgreen:


Return to “Alpha A-mount System”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron