The future Alpha 99

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Rodney Brown
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The future Alpha 99

Unread post by Rodney Brown »

Would any of you expert guys on here like to hazard a guess as to what might happen to the A99 in the foreseeable future - I mean as far as upgrades are concerned?
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by peterottaway »

I would expect the basics of the A7 and A7r to carryover to the mid level and upper level Alpha 2014 models using the basic A99 design, and with prices in the same range as the Nikon D6xx to D8xx.

But Sony cannot simply turnout Alpha clones to the A7 family and expect to make any money. So do they make a 24 MP model with a general purpose specification and some gestures to the sporting crowd ? You could say some type photojournalist type camera, if there were any photojournalists left to buy such a camera. The 36 MP sensor is more for studio and landscape photographers so Sony could provide more features in the way of radio / IR control which may not make economic sense lower costing cameras.

I would have thought that these features require time, effort and money to develop and without applying the same thinking to the APS A5/A6/A7 replacements it will not be worth the effort. You also have to look at the Nex6 and Nex7 replacements as the current cameras are far too much the same. And I think you can assume that the A7 is the Nex FF camera people have been speculating on.

Always more fun to speculate than when reality hits us straight in the face.
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Re: The future Alpha 99

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Are you prompting a discussion of firmware upgrades or future hardware?
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Birma
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Re: The future Alpha 99

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Purely speculation (and I'm no expert!).

36 mp for sure but will they go for more :)

Getting Ibis to work with these mega sensors seems a challenge worthy of Sony's aspirations.

Will they keep the semi-transparent mirror, or can they crack the on sensor PDF?

Wireless and NFC for sure.

4K video ?

Should be exciting :)
Nex 5, Nex 6 (IR), A7M2, A99 and a bunch of lenses.
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Greg Beetham
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

I tend to think FF will become more of a recluse niche area for rich enthusiasts with the polarization and reduction in units sold now and in the future, that’s if they don’t solve the cost of producing large sensors that is, 8x-10x the cost of an APS-C sensor.

Sony could bring an A-mount mirrorless with very large MP’s like the A7r but with maybe even more MP’s than that, a camera that has pedestrian focusing aimed at the landscapers and architectural types where fast focus doesn’t matter.

They could also take notice of the Df too, and try to bring a fast lower MP FF camera out, personally I don’t particularly care if it forsakes the multitude of analog dials and has mainly rear screen settings via a few dials and buttons, I like on screen settings because you can’t see analog dials out in the dark when doing flash work at night. That’s one of the things I do like about the digital age, on screen navigation and settings.

Both should have dual memory slots and large buffers, maybe even dual processors and could bring a new larger battery in the high MP version.
I would expect that camera to be an SLT, I would be very surprised (pleasantly) if it turned out to be a non-video DSLR with a return to rapid start up and shutdown times with low battery usage as well as a flash system that works properly.

I would not expect either of them to be low cost, the high MP electronicky mirrorless version will be expensive, not because it will cost more to make but because Sony will stand to make a killing with that one.
That’s my guess.
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KevinBarrett
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by KevinBarrett »

Greg Beetham wrote:I tend to think FF will become more of a recluse niche area for rich enthusiasts with the polarization and reduction in units sold now and in the future, that’s if they don’t solve the cost of producing large sensors that is, 8x-10x the cost of an APS-C sensor.
Trends show full-frame digital cameras becoming cheaper and reaching more markets. How many years ago was it that the only full-frame cameras were a couple of flagship DSLRs and the odd Leica? Now there are full frame DSLRs, cam-corders, compacts, and mirrorless system cameras. They're paired with entry-level focal plane shutters, fast pro-spec shutters, electronic shutters, and leaf shutters.

Now, if you mean to say "full-frame DSLRs will become more of a reclusive niche," I believe you, but the 135 format is not going the way of the medium and large format film systems that went before it. It's been around for nearly 80 years and its native measures have formed the basis of popular understanding of photographic principals (135 equivalents). However, the SLR architectures that carry most full-frame 135 format sensors are certainly losing appeal. They haven't been able to offer enough new functionality to keep new buyers interested, compared to the other possibilities.

Now I do think it's interesting that Sony has introduced most of those other possibilities, and also bounded themselves for future full-frame camera pricing by offering two system cameras at $1700 and $2300, then two premium compacts mated to a very fast and exclusive Zeiss lens at just $2800. Sony will be hard pressed to price any future "9" series A mount camera outside of those figures (or even between them) without offering more spectacular capabilities.
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Greg Beetham
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

There is a possibility that the new E-mount FF cameras (for example) will sell ok Kevin, at first glance they are functional looking FF’s with a good sensor at a decent price, but I have my doubts they will become a ‘must have’ model with the lenses that have been announced.
If you include lenses other than E-mount then you have to add the price of the adaptor to the price of the body and suddenly they aren’t as cheap as they at first appeared and on top of that there is no stabilization so I for one can’t see the advantage if you add the cost and the weight of the adaptor to the A7-A7r cameras vs. just getting a fully functional FF DSLT or DSLR that will have stabilization, instead.

And people aren’t going to be impressed with reports that they are slow to start up, even swapping from the rear screen to the EVF is slow, and they do use the battery charge at a faster rate than a DSLR.
I’m not trying to unjustly criticize them, they will have to stand or fall on their merits, but the thing is they don’t respond quickly (according to dpr) at some things like most DSLR’s do, how that will affect sales is anyone’s guess.

And that’s been the problem with MILC’s, the perception that they are slow at some things (right or wrong) have some operational quirks here and there like iffy AF in dullish light, consume battery power at a much faster rate, and possibly not have a solid reliable system flash operation in a broad range of circumstances.

Yes MILC’s are trendy, but in the US people have been opting for reliable rather than trendy, and yes DSLR sales are down too I believe because the economic situation is not conducive for people to bother with luxury items as much as in the past and the newer DSLR’s aren’t offering anything major (as you say) in the way of improvements over what they most likely already have.

The FF arena is one that hasn’t been fully exploited by the camera makers yet, the forever rumored Pentax FF will have to hurry up and appear before the party is over.
I think the camera makers will try to appeal to more niche areas apart from the ones we have already seen, making models specifically good for a particular kind of pursuit, they can only try it, who knows, if a particular type develops into a reasonably good seller then they can ramp up production for it. Like the D800E probably outsold the D800 even though it’s probably a slightly worse all round camera, but if people want it why would they say no?

Then there is the RX1 example, if ever there was a niche camera that was one, a small box with a FF sensor and fixed wide angle lens with a huge price tag, and Sony had quite a demand for it apparently, which just shows I don’t have much of an idea about what should sell or not, that camera at that price should have been as dead as a dodo, by rights.

Also there is the latest FF ‘back to the future’ Df from Nikon, it will be interesting to see how well that one sells at the price they are asking.
I think looking at the market situation and trends, FF will remain a niche, (or a bunch of niches) unless the price comes down, because getting a FF camera is only the start of a completely new round of GAS.
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by peterottaway »

Apart from the size, weight and PP, most of my photography is not that much different from if I was using a 5x4 field camera. So many of comments about the A7r are neither here to there to me. Same would go for an A99 body with a 36 MP sensor.

The amount of time I actually spend taking photographs as opposed to looking and thinking is minimal.Even with wildlife or sports I am more interested in form and context rather than what a wonderful ghee whiz shot that is. A certain knowledge and long years working at anticipation get me by in most circumstances. Not the answer that a commercial sports photographer or a news stringer would probably be interested in. For them get a D4 or an EOS 1.
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bfitzgerald
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Re: The future Alpha 99

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Why not do a FF 16mp to fit in below the A99?
16mp is fine plenty of resolution and the low light would be good even with a SLT sucking some light off the sensor.

36mp is overkill for most of us, worse you're stuck with those massive raw files bar chomping them down in the Adobe DNG converter later on. I can't think of a single time I would honestly need 36mp, def not for portraits and weddings, even for landscapes you get cracking prints at 12-16mp even at big sizes.

Sony will probably keep the A99 going for next year, add a new 36mp one (even more expensive) and that's about it. A99 price might drop to £1500, still far too expensive for what it is.
I'm certainly not willing to pay Sony's price premium for full frame, esp not SLT full frame.

I'm still expecting a "real budget" FF DSLR to turn up, and that will force Sony's hand on pricing. First to make that magic sub £1000 FF DSLR will cause untold damage to other makers, I'm just surprised Sony can't see the obvious!
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by classiccameras »

Of course there are disc space and down load speed issues to take into consideration. I'm with Barry, 12-16mp is all you need in theory.
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Greg Beetham
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

I’ve said the same thing before today about MP’s, but it’s not what people need it’s about what they think they need and I’m sure landscapers will buy a 40 or 45MP FF camera, there are people who buy 60MP MF cameras even though there is no normally available computer screen that can show any advantage convincingly.
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Birma
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by Birma »

I think the 'niche' camera idea probably has legs. Why do cameras have to do everything well when many enthusiasts have a favoured type of photography that requires only a sub-set of features? The whole approach Sony has taken with the A7 and A7r is going down this route. All that fuss about High ISO and noise a few years ago. Still had 90% of my shots at ISO 100. Now every camera has to have sharp shooter auto focus. While the DF does nothing for me, I am pleased to see the expanding choice of 'niche' products, rather than the slow, small, generalist upgrade path of the 500, 550, 600, 650, 700 etc.

PCs went the same way. First lap tops disrupted the desk top's supremacy, and now you get the device of the size and features you want, and probably have multiple devices for different occasions. Sure, there are lots of things my tablet can not do that my desk top can do, but everyone accepts the benefit / compromise for those different devices.

I know it has been said many times before, but we live in exciting times for photographic hardware. Bring on the 45MP sensor! :)
Nex 5, Nex 6 (IR), A7M2, A99 and a bunch of lenses.
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bfitzgerald
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by bfitzgerald »

Niche is ok, but the DF is a honker IMO and a serious misfire. Who in their right mind would spend £2750 just to enjoy a few extra dials? Not to mention I'd have not that much faith in the unimpressive 39point AF system I've tried from Nikon.

Fuji have done ok for a sort of alternative system with a bit of retro thrown in, though the lower end models do nothing for me (no VF seems stupid)
Not sure where Canon's EOS M will go if anywhere at all bar the bargain bin, I'm sure they have some plans.

For me, Sony isn't a company that can really do niche well. They seem to be throwing everything out there, sometimes it's decent enough (RX100), other times it's simply obviously not going to work (RX10 springs to mind! wake up Sony £1000 isn't going to fly)

Said it before and it's even more obvious now. SLT is not going to have any serious impact in the market unless there is a price incentive for buyers. Sony can slap out a 36mp SLT model all they want for £3000, they will sell very few of them. The mass market full frame is their only chance. Otherwise they are stuck head to head with Canikon who will just price them off the market. Sony need to sit down and think about A mount, properly. That means making products that meet users needs (ie listening for once), fixing issues that are still out there (ie firmware updates) and expanding the lens range to badly needed missing glass.

Anything else is just wasting time until they give up on A Mount and just have E mount products. Sony are bad at listening, really bad actually...that's half their problem summed up in one.
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Greg Beetham
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by Greg Beetham »

I was amazed by the threads at dpr on the Df topic it even went as high a 45% of clicks and I don’t recall any camera doing that before, by comparison what did the A7-A7r generate? I think from memory they briefly touched around 12% but the Df went on and on for many days, near a week I think, pretty damn good for a misfire Barry.

I don’t know if that huge amount of interest in the Nikon will translate into sales though as it’s quite expensive, some speculated that Nikon didn’t want it competing with D610-D800 sales so they priced it accordingly and that sounds plausible. But doing that means that with its analog dials interface and no video button at such a high price its most definitely another FF niche camera that is aimed at a specific audience.

I guess we’ll find out sooner or later just how big that audience is, ie a small niche, a medium sized niche or a really big niche which means it then isn’t a niche camera after all.

As far as the A99 goes or Sony A-mount FF in general I’m not sure Sony would want to release a camera that will compete directly with it so soon, I could see a lower spec less featured in MP’s FF maybe, and a really humongous MP FF camera, but both will have to have the right features, bang for the buck and be glitch free, especially the lower MP cam as it should be a special purpose camera that appeals to a particular segment, but for it to be a 'must have' model it must work almost flawlessly in every area, i.e. not really a niche camera either.
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bfitzgerald
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Re: The future Alpha 99

Unread post by bfitzgerald »

I think the key word here is "glitch free"
Over a year later and the A99 still doesn't have it's flash delay problem sorted out. And their top end flash has serious SB900 shut down overheating problems.
This is expensive gear, there is no point Sony pretending to chase the higher end market if they can't even get their current stuff to work properly.

They might want to look at sorting out some of their current and previous models, I wouldn't mind a jpeg engine that's actually half decent. And fixing those annoying baby nag screens.
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