The only thing I've been "wrong about" was I though the Bionz Raw NR could not be bypassed with a firmware update, this was not the case.

Apart from that I'm struggling to think of predictions which have horribly back fired. Can't be many. Unlike a few I've never retracted the 4/3 DSLR doom prediction (Luminous Landscape did wrongly IMO) side stepping to micro 4/3 doesn't count either. Their DSLR division is all but defunct as predicted they just had the wrong sensor format and Olympus couldn't even hold it up in recent interviews either offering no real commitments to DSLR users. Nice as the E5 is it's a bye bye gift for 4/3 DSLR users it's not going to bag any new ones and Olympus users have started to move onto other mounts (as predicted years ago)

I said the A230-380 series would be a failure in the market and even today I see retailers struggling to offload stock at blow out prices MLU, DOF preview and all these as you call them "crusades" were very much the right approach to take and the users that supported that stance did so in the interests of all.

So nope I'm not seeing many horribly wrong predictions here you'd be a tad unwise to suggest the OVF is RIP so early on in the game.

But the main points to make is that ILC's such as NEX and NX cameras do not really meet the needs of DSLR users we have 2 distinct branches of cameras. Your average SLR user never was the mainstream nor will they be in the future it was boom time simply because the prices of these cameras became so low and compact makers just didn't bother trying anymore same old tiny sensors not moving with the demand from some (bigger sensors!) At this time we don't know what Nikon are up to nor other makers. It's possible they could do a compact type with a lens change maybe something else.

I would not like to predict anything at the moment, but if Nikon do bring out the rumoured Pro mirrorless body and it is a hit who knows what will happen then.

I'm not sure using NEX sales to inflate DSLR sales figures works for me. The only thing a NEX has in common with a DSLR is the sensor.
Greg

ps. Richard I think they know HOW to play, what they need is a few more in the team who CAN play, anyway well done England.

Greg, I think they were talking about cameras with interchangeable lenses. So a NEX also has interchangeable lenses in common with DSLRs - may not be the same ones though all the time. I think it does make some sense to lump the two groups together as I would venture that quite a few individuals will have both and to some extent use the same lenses on both groups (using converters). As I stated above, it was interesting to note that the Samsung spokes person predicted that the mirrorless would overtake DSLRs by 2015.
I am not sure that Barry is entirely right here all the time. David Kilpatrick is now using his NEX-5 and so are a lot other people including me. It will not be long before we will have primes as well as a range of compact zooms from W/A to tele. If you are going on a trip with just your 10Kg bag for mobility the NEX with 14 or probably 16Mb and a range of compact lenses will give you DSLR quality with a welcome reduction in weight and size as a bonus. I am one such person wanting to do just that.

If Sony bring out a NEX 7 that has a more DSLR-ish interface I'd take it as a camera more seriously, but even so any NEX has to have large-ish lenses because of the large sensor, if you want to take advantage of the potential that is. So it sortof defeats it's own purpose as a compact system camera to an extent, because you still have to hump large DSLR lenses around and the camera isn't as functional as a true DSLR in anycase, the concept works (for me) if you limit yourself to regarding it as a compact with a couple of short lenses only.
Greg

Greg said: If Sony bring out a NEX 7 that has a more DSLR-ish interface I'd take it as a camera more seriously, but even so any NEX has to have large-ish lenses because of the large sensor, if you want to take advantage of the potential that is. So it sortof defeats it's own purpose as a compact system camera to an extent, because you still have to hump large DSLR lenses around and the camera isn't as functional as a true DSLR in anycase, the concept works (for me) if you limit yourself to regarding it as a compact with a couple of short lenses only.
Greg

NEX not meant to replace DSLR & longer tele lenses but NEX 7 could work quite well in that regard for - say - 16-105 lens size and smaller if an EV is an option. Smaller size can be very important.

Why would we need large lenses for Nex? We need more small (prime) lenses for Nex. Nex's sensor isn't the part that is common with DSLR (R1 had that too). Nex is an interchangeable lens system -- just like DSLRs -- and these are all counted under the same category.

We do not need a Nex with a body like "DSLR" (that would be the stupdiest thing Sony could ever do -- luckly they won't fall for that). We need more small Nex models with more prime lenses.

Interface means controls mostly, not with an EVF necessarily either, so I'm saying an interface with more dedicated buttons and a dial etc. like a DSLR has for more ease of control and setting selections. Also for an APS-C sized sensor you need to use DSLR sized lenses to get the most out of it, if you want to use it in place of a DSLR that is, as some have said they would do on occasion.
You can use the limited selection of available e-mount lenses that utilize the short register, but even of those the only one that is compact is the 16mm prime, what's needed is e-mount 24mm and 30mm primes also. I'd probably be happy with just the 16 and 30.
Greg

ps. OneGuyKs you could always go back and read carefully what I wrote and try and understand it.

It is all true what you say Greg, but I come back to the old adage that "it is horses for courses" and equally every product is a set of compromises. I mostly do architecture, landscape and travel, so for me compactness and weight v. IQ is important. I can envisage ending up with perhaps my NEX-5 as spare and NEX-7 (whatever that is going to be) coupled with the 16 (24mm) mm pancake and ultra wide adapter (18mm in 35mm size) plus the new Tamron 18-270mm in Sony edition (that will hopefully AF with the Sony A to E adapter). It won't have SSS (shame on Tamron/Sony) but as David Kilpatrick said somewhere up to ISO1600 will not be a problem so pump up the ISO to defeat camera shake at the long tele end. Such a combo will cover me and the weight/volume will be much less than two DSLR bodies and W/A to tele lenses. The major saving will admittedly be in two slim NEXes v. two DSLRs. So I will fiddle with the settings with my thumbs but I will get quality gear in my 10Kg bag and not suffer back pain. A perfect compromise in an imperfect world. You are not going to get everything to your liking now or ever.

Well you can still do some damage with that alphaomega, no problemo, and it shouldn't weigh a ton.
Speaking of which, I thought today I'd go for a quick zoom on the bike after doing some work, (the bike trip didn't eventuate after all). I thought I'd take the A700 (no grip) with 100-300apo (nice light compact 300 zoom right?) and the A100 with KM18-200 as well to save the changing lenses hassel and a flash for each (don't weigh much right?), so I unloaded everything not needed (a few other lenses mainly) from a Slingshot 300AW and left in some memory cards and a spare battery for each camera. The resulting camera bag should be reasonably portable and not very heavy....I thought, until I picked it up, then I was wondering if there was a house brick in there as well someplace. If I added back in another lens or two it would really get obscene I reckon.
So yes a NEX 7 would be interesting to check out one day when it arrives, just to see if that would make more sense, depending on the type of photography intended that is.
For your landscapes and architecture you probably don't even really need AF what with zoom LV and perhaps a pod.
Greg

You want some spinach just like Popeye to cart that lot around Greg.
It does soon ad up on the weight a couple of lenses and bodies, just think if you tried that with say a Canon 1Dmk4 a 600mm lens tripod, gimbal mount and all that goes with it, you would really want your spinach, on my travels around I see many like that.
It would spoil it for me having to do that sort of thing.
Saying that I always end up taking more than I use at least I am on my scooter (4 wheeled mobility scooter) Pride Wrangler for you over in the USA, the most powerful of the scooters and I carry my kit on the back, but then I very rarely use a tripod or monopod, hand held for all my wildlife work.
So it is as they say horses for courses, The NEX has its place also the A-55/33 and the full frame also my 580.
Richard

Yes Richard I can well imagine what a 1D + 600mm + tripod and extras would add up to...heavy duty, it's not that I'm frightened of a bit of weight, but one does a mental assessment of what a couple of bodies with lenses plus a couple of flashes (could probably forgo the backup flash) should come to, and still not be prepared for the actual. (I do have a really big heavy camera bag that I haven't ever taken anywhere much except in the truck, that one has the complete MF system in it, body, grip, backs, finders and lenses and accessories, so I know what heavy is for sure). I think I'm still semi remembering the 35mm body weights as a mental yardstick, temporarily forgetting that DSLR's are probably twice the weight, maybe more, of a 35mm film body.
Greg

If you need 600mm lenses, buy the DSLR. Nex is designed for everyday usage. It needs to be small and it needs small and prime lenses. We do not neet a DSLR like Nex. That would be a big flop.

The NEX has some obvious limitations depending on what you are shooting subject wise.
No viewfinder for starters is an instant turn off, flash... very clear shortcomings indeed with nothing on board (at odds with the target market) no wireless support and the only flash available is to weedy to be taken seriously (not your first choice for portraits either). This isn't going to cut it just on that alone.
Next (ha ha) handling wise despite a brave firmware update (let's ask the question who put it out in it's original state!) direct access buttons are simply a must for many DSLR shooters.
Slap anything other than a pancake on there and the camera just does not live up to it's compact carry around title.

Of course it's perfectly fine for travel and outdoors etc if you can tolerate no viewfinder (which I can't) but nobody is going to take it as anything other than a juiced up cybershot with a bigger sensor and a lens change. Because that's exactly what it is!

You don't need a 600mm lens to prove the point either even the standard 18-55mm looks massive on it pancakes are the only lenses that make any real sense. If somebody gave me a NEX for nothing I'd not even open the box just put it on ebay and sell it I've rarely disliked a camera as much as this it's as if it never even saw the hands of a photographer at the design stage. If this is a glimpse of the future (no VF, no flash, tiny body minimal controls) I honestly give up.

I don’t think anyone has suggested sticking a long lens on a NEX.
All that has been said is everything has its place.
I said I don’t envy those carting round Canon 1Dmk whatever with all the kit that is required for that, I do most of my shooting as light as possible even using a Tamron 200-500mm for the longer range bird shots also a Sigma 100-300mm f4 on my A-580 and that is heavy enough as I don’t even like using a tripod unless in my hide in the garden and else where the most I take is a monopod even then not used much.
The point made was would you like to cart a load of gear round all day weighing as much as a kitchen sink, like some take with them.
Richard