PMA 2009

[Dr. Harout]

Read this: http://www.photographybay.com/2008/12/2 ... 9-preview/

[bakubo]

There was this:

"I received an email tip from someone who provided accurate info on the A900 that the entire Sony Alpha DSLR lineup will be replaced in 2009."

Hard to believe that the A900 would be replaced so soon.

[Dr. Harout]

I don't think it will be replaced, probably there would be an upgrade. The only replacement for the A900 would be (or should be) the firmware.

[PhotoTraveler]

I think this article is over optimistic.

Canon: While canon bringing a 500D is possibly, I don't think they will. I don't think there will be too much on the body front from them. If there is any new body, expect a Canon 7D, a new Canon line to take on the D300/D400 area, Canon has really shifted the #0D line down so much it's more in line with the D90, even with the slight bounceback on price they did with the 50D. Other than that, I would only expect new lenses. Maybe a new F2.8, 24-70 or 70-200 from them. Their 70-200 is getting old. Maybe the long rumored TSE updates will come along.

Nikon: I think the person is ahead of themselves. A D60X is pretty much a given, But it's early for a D400. The D300 has only been on sale for 12months, (it didn't ship till december of 07), PMA is early, and the D300 has a good bit of life. No way a D700X will happen this quick. It will completely kill D3X sales, but maybe by then everyone who is willing to pay for a D3X has had it. I think the D700 is dropping in price due to pixel short comings, but still, it's early for such a body. I think Nikon will focus more on lenses. They desperately need a F4 full frame line (same as Sony). There non F2.8 FF zoom options are terrible, worse than Sony really. Expect a 4/24-105G AFS VR or similar, and a new 80-400 VR from them. As Nikon fans hate those lenses yet they are the only options they have. Also maybe a new prime, like a new 1.4/85 as they have started the regular prime updates (1.4/50G AFS).

Pentax: Here I think they are more on it. But I wouldn't expect much. K300D (gets 14MP sensor) and K30D (new sensor, tweaks), and maybe a K1D/K3D which gives them a more Nikon D300/D400 head on body.

Sony: I don't see a full line change happening. But I think it will be close. This is what I see at PMA. A A500 which is basically a re-worked A700 in a cheaper version. Gets either video or main sensor LV, they put the button in the empty space just like the 3 series over the 2 series. This will set a stage for an A700 replacement a few months later. Again I think "A710" and D400 will happen the same timeframe, and I think it's a couple months after PMA. A new CMOS 14-16MP sensor for both nikon and sony. Sony ups the whole package and makes the replacement more like the D300/D400, (gets more expensive, more stuff, bigger view finder, all the new stuff of the A900, and a few newer things (GPS!)). Still, I don't see that at PMA. If there is a second body, it will be a low end. At some point in 09, I do think the whole entry level line will be trashed, and it will happen before August. The current bodies are 3rd gen of the old KM 5D chassis. I think it's dead now. Expect an EVIL in there from Sony at some point, Not sure if they will do a micro-A mount, they really can't do it very easily at this time. But they can stick with it as is, and scrap the mirror. Make a new body around it, maybe some lenses that only work on it. Maybe the first step is the A200 dies, And a EVIL comes in. Still, I think at PMA it might just be 1 body, and A500, followed by a A700 replacement a few months later (when A500 comes the A700 will all but be done anyways). On lenses. I think we will see the 4/24-105G SSM, and it gets kitted with the A900 for $3500 USD. A new base kit lens to replace the 18-70 first gets offered on A500. Maybe a new wide angle zoom too for the low end (Tamron Based?). And then maybe some news on a 4/200G SSM macro, maybe some wide angle ZA prime stuff finally shows in final form. Still, go conservative. And then I really hope for at least a mockup of a TS lens line. So on the conservative side, 1 body, 2 lenses. On the more optimistic, 2 bodies, 4-5 lenses plus mockups. By the end of 09, yeah, I think all the bodies will be replaced except the A900. Once Sony gets going, I expect 12 month cycle on the entry level bodies. Canon has all ready moved into that area. And on the midlevel stuff 18months might be their max. I just don't see them doing long life products, it's just not Sony. Just keep bringing incrementally improved bodies in quick timeframes, and that's not a completely bad thing.

Oly: Puts out the last or regular 4/3rds bodies, updates to the 4XX line is probably all that will be. And that is it, m43 from there out.

Panny: Lots of new toys

Lens stuff: I think Tokina might announce lenses for A mount returning. Things like the fisheye zoom, and 4/12-24 first. Then maybe Sigma or Tamron announce something like a TS or PC lens (remote chance on this, but wouldn't surprise me). Tamron announces some form of SSM/USM/HSM with their own 3 letter acronym, will involve an S and a M someplace in the name, 3rd letter is classified. Rumors will fly that it's licensed from Sony, others will go on saying Sony's SSM is licensed from someone else (Sigma?) and mass arguments go on.

[peterottaway]

Part of the answer for the period from PMA 2009 to PMA 2010 will depend (as has been mentioned elsewhere) whether Sony decides to act like the traditional camera manufactures or as a consumer electronics manufacturer. And then treats cameras as a similar commodity to TV's etc where they will provide a slightly different model for every possible niche in the market.

Also what does Nikon want for it's next generation of sensors ? Given the quality produced by the the 12 MP APS-C sensor in the Nikon D90, where does that leave the 12 MP FF sensor and who will buy the D300 when for all practical purposes the cheaper model gives you more ?

Given that the Canon 5D Mark 11 has gone to 21 MP, does Nikon go to a 16 MP to 18 MP FF and push bigger pixels or use the Sony 24 MP and introduce a D700x towards the end of 2009.

It would seem that Nikon does require a D400 model sooner rather than later. A 14 MP to 15MP APS-C with Live View and HDTV video would not seem a tough ask and in marketing terms would justify maintaining the price difference between the D90 and a D300 replacement. GPS , Wi Fi and larger memory ( looks good in the brochure ).

[bfitzgerald]

These threads are always fun

Truth is I have no idea what will happen.
Everyone said Nikon would do live view on the D60, and it never happened. I suspect they will have to do something more than a badge change this time around. It won't make any difference because most review sites will love it, even if they do nothing! (dig dig!)
A700 may well go to 15mp + (sadly), more stuff slapped in..etc etc. I would think £900 odd is the upper limit for APS-C semi pro. I predict a crop sensor after the A750 or whatever it's called. Or rather I hope for..
A500 there is a place for this..
A200 due an update mid 2009, I wouldn't expect a whole load of new stuff in there, but you never know. Sony will want to keep a cheapie model, to pull users in, and the A200 has sold well, from what I have seen. Shoe horning an EVF in (if it's decent) would be a terrible mistake, and would increase costs. Not likely to happen. Maybe 12mp..don't know,
A300/350, I imagine just one model for this, maybe they will do EVF, don't know, don't really care so long as they leave an OVF based entry model. They might bang loads of pixels in there to appeal to the ill informed consumer

Video..again don't care a whole lot myself, but I have no objections to it if it does not stuff up handling. Maybe sony will have to do this one..
Live view, again..no problems with it, maybe time to whack it in there across the range

Olympus will move their 4/3 models up to 12mp, with the same DR challenged and noisy/banding pannie sensors. Hey they might even upgrade the antique 3 point AF system too Won't matter as they have shown they are unable to do big things in the marketplace, bar blowout deals on older twin kit models. The micro 4/3 will be a compact type thing, and have almost no impact on the DSLR market.

Panasonic will do their HD video G1, and charge a high price for it. And will slug it out at the bottom of the pile. I don't take them seriously until they can price a product at competitive levels.

Pentax have to do something meaty, as their market share is dire. A real semi pro body with more than 3fps, and they someone will have to slap the Hoya board with a wet fish, to ensure they price it properly, and not charge the earth killing sales (they stuffed up the K20d with a high launch price)

Kit lens will probably get replaced, I have complained directly to sony on this one, it sucks! lol

The usual Canikon stuff, too much to think about really.

I cannot wait for the day they get all these video live view things done and dusted, and get back to making real cameras, and working on photographic stuff!

As for the 5d being a 3 year old platform, well ok. But I would trade the build of the 5d for the A200 anyday..nice solid body.

[David Kilpatrick]

PMA 2009 will hopefully see the real launch of the 16-35mm f2.8 and 70-400mm SSM G, both of which I've taken a few test shots on and know will be popular despite the price. The Alpha 900 has been a success to the point of shortages (oddly combined with falling prices in the UK) and many lenses are also out of stock. The Sony strategy has been successful, they have secured a market penetration slightly greater than their production capacity. Part of this has been down to some extremely competitive pricing. Our local photo shop (literally what is called mom-and-pop in the US, but just a 'family business' here) after five years without a Minolta or Sony SLR for sale suddenly had A200 kits with free CF cards and tripods for less than many of the web discounter, before Christmas. It turned out Sony had done a deal with an independent wholesaler, meaning that stores without Sony accounts could get these cameras and make a profit. At £250 with the extras thrown in, the A200 kits were flying out (they also had a twin-lens kit).

I decided to give our little-used A200 kit to the grandchildren (two boys, 12 and 13) to share, and then was told that their other grandad had just got himself an A350 (recommended by the dealer, and liked by him for the live view) and was looking for a tele lens for his wildlife (he's a licensed deer stalker and a water-baillie, looks after a large sporting estate on the River Tweed). So I added the Tamron 70-300mm, and asked him to look after the camera kit since he's very close to the kids and sees them all the time, takes them fishing and hunting - asked him to try the tele himself and work out how to get the best results, and pass on the knowledge. Quite surprising though to find he'd bought a Sony (not being aware of anything I have to do with them, since he did not realise they were 'Minolta').

From the pricing I think the A200 may be either sold out, or due for transfer to a new factory, which often means an upgrade model ends up being released. I don't think the entire range will be replaced but this is Sony, and that's how they work with all their TVs and similar products. But I see the cameras more like the Playstation products, with a life of more than a year for each model.

David

[bfitzgerald]

IMO it would be a mistake for sony to can the A200, and replace it at this stage, mid year yes, now..nope. It's selling well, very well if amazon is any indication.
A new model would most likely be not as cheap, unless they priced it very well, and added some must have stuff, not a strong move.
Nikon are still bashing out their D40, which is over 2 years old now. Maybe sony will keep the A200 as the "super super budget dslr", we might even get a sub £200 price point! They might simply bring a newer model out a bit over it..whilst letting it sell right down at the bottom entry point

A700 update and A500 are next on my list, but it could be tricky to price an A500. But they surely need this, for those who don't want to goof about with the live view models, but want more features, at a nicer price than the A700 offers. Problem for an A500 is the A700 is fairly cheap now..

We have to remember this is a bad economic time, it may not make sense to have a huge model range.

[GaryMulcahey]

From the PMA site>>>>>> "I received an email tip from someone who provided accurate info on the A900 that the entire Sony Alpha DSLR lineup will be replaced in 2009."

I'm not interested in the anything but the a900. I will be purchasing a whole system around the time of the 16-35 release. If they are reworking the a900 I may only purchase one body. Now Sony has stated or rumoured to have stated that the a900 was not their pro camera. Could there be a pro Alpha in 2009? If so I will hold off on the purchase of a second body and rent as needed. I don't shoot above base iso for the most part, so this noise is not an issue.


G

[Dr. Harout]

Hi Gary and welcome to the forum.
I am not sure Sony will exhibit a Pro model at the PMA (not even a mock up). Not yet, because there are no rumors or hints on new sensors except for the backlit one which will not be FF for now.
How about our mysterious mister (or is it she?) A1000 to enlighten us.

[GaryMulcahey]

Thanks Doc,
I thought I'd check this site out if I was going to get an a900 for working with. I'm impressed with the Zeiss lenses. I could have bought the D3X that I was waiting for but I needed a few lenses also and that would have run the cost up to $12,000.00 + Canadian. I've not seen any difference at low and base iso from the a900 and D3X and least not $6,4000.00 difference. I'm buying into this Sony system in the hope more lenses will come about and that Sony is committed to their high end cameras at a reasonable price.

G

[stevecim]

During bad economic times, it would make sense to release a FW update for the 300/350, improve high ISO, do something with the zoom button and other "thing" can be done via software like, min-max setting for auto iso, maybe DOV preview etc... high ISO and zoom button is where it really get killed in reviews ( not that reviews mean that much, but it's what new buyers read)

this would extend their sales life for another 6-12 months, there are not many 14-15Mp cameras in the market a good FW update on the a350 would give it 12-18 months of life.

I wonder how much of Minolta IP they purchased? They should try some thing different, like update the "beercan" with SSM, new coatings (a good "beercan" is getting hard to find )

[pakodominguez]

PMA 2009 will hopefully see the real launch of the 16-35mm f2.8 and 70-400mm SSM G, both of which I've taken a few test shots on and know will be popular despite the price.

I think it already happened:
http://www.adorama.com/ISO163528Z.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.adorama.com/ISO70400G.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
the 70~400 shows back ordered

[pakodominguez]

During bad economic times, it would make sense to release a FW update for the 300/350, improve high ISO, do something with the zoom button and other "thing" can be done via software like, min-max setting for auto iso, maybe DOV preview etc... high ISO and zoom button is where it really get killed in reviews ( not that reviews mean that much, but it's what new buyers read)

this would extend their sales life for another 6-12 months, there are not many 14-15Mp cameras in the market a good FW update on the a350 would give it 12-18 months of life.

I know very little about Economy, but I think that "During a bad economic times" what Sony will want to do is selling more cameras (products in general) and not improving the life/performance of cameras, so the consumers don't need the need of renewing their "12/18 months old" ones.

They probably did it on the A700 because it was easy to apply what they got for the A900 (both cameras share OS and probably components), and because they need to empty their stock of A700 thinking on the replacement. The only FW improvement I think we will see is for the A900.

Regards

[peterottaway]

How about something like this

Body 1. An improved A350 body with a better and larger penta-mirror. Camera A is the Barry F special ie an A200 selling at little more than cost price,Sony orange to be substituted with discreet orange and green. Camera B has the same 12MP sensor as the D90 with Intelligent Preview. Camera C with video is the Sony version of the Nikon D90. All use 12 bit processor, current battery grip to fit but with a newer higher priced offering with GPS and Wi Fi included. Firmware to include grid lines, proper ghosting in 16.9 ratio and built in CA and lens adjustment database for at all Sony released lens. Software to have new interface and be designed to do the basics well with options for user adjustment - the more sophisticated full version available for purchase.

Body 2. Slightly modified A700 body with auto switching between 2 CF cards. Camera D (A500) with effective 14.8MP sensor and Intelligent Preview. Camera E (A700 replacement) has the same 14.8 MP sensor but with full video. 14 bit processor, I would think that the Sony marketing people would prefer GPS and Wi Fi also built into the optional battery grip rather than in their eyes given away for free with the camera. Same comments apply to firmware, software something like Photoshop Elements limited to Sony cameras with an added (third party ?) lens database.

Body 3. A modified A900 for PMA 2010 with 16 bit processors,inbuilt GPS and Wi Fi. Camera F ( A800) is basically the current A900. Camera G is the real Dynax Maxxum 9 replacement ( Alpha 1 aka the Alpha Male ).Apply your own wish list, just be aware that what you want will cost at least as much as the Nikon D3x.

PS On the lens front I would like a FF 50 - 150 / 2.8 rather than an updated 70 - 200 / 2.8 but that is even more unlikely than the Alpha 1.