A1000 wrote:$1,000 FF Alpha - Can you guess when?
There is no reason why FF should cost more than 2x as much as APS-C.
I estimate $2K FF this year, $1,5K next, $1,000 in 2011, even with strong Yen.
A1000 will be a pro body.
Zeiss is the magent for pros. Pros are the magnet for amateurs. See Sony's market share climbing.
If Sony combines their ClearVid technology w/EXMOR-R, we'll soon have a FF camera w/40 effective MP and 2x the sensitivity of D3x.
Since we are in the MP race, expect same sensitivity and 80 MP. The race will be who will first reach 100 effective MP, without reducing sensitivity. It will not take long. By that time we'll have new way of taking pictures and lenses, which will extend close to the CMOS, no OVF
I still estimate $2K FF this year, $1,5K next, $1,000 in 2011
This year Sony comes out with their 12 MP cell phones, without XMOR-R. Simply by adding their checkerboard ClearVid pattern to the sensor would mean that Sony can claim 25 MP effective resolution. Adding the XMOR-R technology means that if the density of pixels is increased to yield effective 50 MP resolution, the low light performance will still be the same. So you see that Sony has the technology now to produce 50 MP effective resolution cell phone sensors with the same low light performance as the current cell phones, and will soon have the technology to produce FF CMOS with 100 MP effective resolution, without scarifying low light performance. Photo Traveler described Sony design philosophy, when they have inventions always ready to include in product updates to up their competition and are always ready to counter any competition's advancements, but they do not bring out all their advancements to the market at once. That keeps their products in the forefront and allow them to constantly come out with improved models. The DSLR models Sony introduced so far were basically interim models. The new models, by which you can judge true Sony's, not Minolta's, design will be the A500/550 models. And do not expect the MP race to stop before reaching 100 MP in FF and 50 MP in cell phones. But at that time even newer technologies than ClearVid and XMOR-R will be used. Technology moves on. Not long ago the boards called to stop the MP race at 6MP. Then they loved Nikon's 12 MP FF. Now they would prefer a 24 MP one. So it's 6 to 12 to 24 to 50 to 100. 100 will be the magic number. The next one will be 1GP. It will have a lens element practically touching the sensor. You will not need a zoom lens. You could zoom from 19 to 200 mm digitally and still have 10 MP at 200 mm, from a very compact lens. Forget OVF. The new EVF's will be superior, with excellent resolution and will not get dim at night. The camera will take series of pictures from before you press the shutter to after. You'll play this sequence and will pick up the frame you like. Forget DSLRs! They are so much last century technology!
Do we need the new 100 MP technology? Of course! The picture taken will be time-wise and space-wise extended. You could pick a smaller portion of the frame and will not have to worry that you pressed the shutter a second later than you should have.
This is the main reason why Sony is in DSLR's - because the future is not DSLR, but video technology! And this is the reason why Sony does not plan to be #3, but #1.