Turkey trip photos

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bakubo
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Re: Turkey trip photos

Unread post by bakubo »

I have been reading Dr. George Friedman for 21 years. He is the founder of Stratfor and Geopolitical Futures.

Turkey will become a superpower: George Friedman
Geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs predicts that Turkey will soon emerge as a superpower

http://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/turkey ... an-2590416

“For the past 100 years Turkey has been in a very strange position that it was never in before, because it was first surrounded by the Europeans, and then the Russians and then the Americans. The Americans are leaving, the Russians are not coming back and the British are busy doing other things. Suddenly Turkey is unfolding its wings," said Friedman.

“Turkey now is the 17th largest economy in the world. It is larger than Saudi Arabia. It has an army and military capability that is probably the best in Europe, besides the UK. They could beat the Germans in an afternoon, and the French in an hour if they showed up," he continued.
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Dusty
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Re: Turkey trip photos

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I would think that they can go forward quite a bit, but superpower? It takes more than a big economy for that. Where does Turkey get it's equipment from? I know it makes some, but mostly has other counties re-treads. They still have F4 Phantoms on active duty!

The majority of their tanks are M48/M60 Patton variants, with a bunch of German Leopard 1s & 2s thrown in as well. The Navy is mostly smaller vessels, nothing bigger than a frigate. Not really a blue water navy.

Being a Superpower requires you to be able to project power, and without long range aircraft and a blue water navy you can be nothing more than a regional power.

They are rated #8 from http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp but are way down from the top few overall. See me in another 20 years with that prediction.

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aster
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Re: Turkey trip photos

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Dr. George Friedman has some good observations backed by historical facts there ...

The definition of 'super power' may extend well beyond matters and capacities other than arms, military and navy ... and in such an ever-changing political arena, almost on hourly basis nowadays, things may always come forth in new light, in respect to what's expected as solutions, preferably in peace, as far as I'm concerned. This is a highly volatile geopolitical region, with very different solutions requirements, as history would prove.

Time is the best witness naturally...

Thanks for sharing, Henry. It was an interesting read.

Yildiz
peterottaway
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Re: Turkey trip photos

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Military power projection capacity may have always been part of the definition of being a Great Power. But only part of the definition and can be argued that the build up in military strength often is needed to defend a countries interests from others.

It requires a reasonably stable political system based around a group of core values, technological advantages, a sound financial system and a well run economy to maintain a position of strength and the capacity to persuade regional states of a certain pre-eminence.

And even without running the old arguments about the weakness's of the Ottoman Empire, Turkey has many more deficiencies than strengths. It may qualify at present as the local bully boy with neighboring states but don't forget the "Middle East" like the Balkans is unstable at the best of times. Grievances both real and imagined have a way of infecting the whole region.

Turkey has taken advantage of its tactical position to gain leverage over the US and not just Nato but Europe in general. This is not going to come to an abrupt halt anytime soon. But it would not take an abrupt wholesale shift, just a nudge here and there and a transfer of consideration in whose interests you want to support on any given topic to make it clear that Turkey is as detested as Iran. Why prefer one pariah state over another. You make your political arrangements where you can find them.

This is not how Turkey wants to see itself as a nation and however much it is not how individual Turks are regarded.Spain,France and Germany serve as historical models. Let alone the God is an Englishman syndrome.

The current internal political and social situation in Turkey simply make things more unstable and potentially very dangerous. To have Putin in post Imperial Russia and a pathetic Obama followed by a who knows what Trump in the US can potentially be a nightmare scenario.

Not something I like to dwell on but I didn't bring it up. Many of the problems are often best left mostly behind closed doors and not to become public playthings. Oh for Sport or celebrity sex scandals on both the front and back pages of newspapers, talk back radio and the internet.
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Re: Turkey trip photos

Unread post by aster »

peterottaway wrote:....

Turkey has taken advantage of its tactical position to gain leverage over the US and not just Nato but Europe in general. This is not going to come to an abrupt halt anytime soon.

But it would not take an abrupt wholesale shift, just a nudge here and there and a transfer of consideration in whose interests you want to support on any given topic to make it clear that Turkey is as detested as Iran.

Why prefer one pariah state over another.

You make your political arrangements where you can find them.

......

* "But it would not take an abrupt wholesale shift, just a nudge here and there and a transfer of consideration in whose interests you want to support on any given topic to make it clear that Turkey is as detested as Iran. "

* "Why prefer one pariah state over another. "


Hi Peterottaway;

The fact being that I am a native Turkish citizen, I definitely grew up knowing, feeling and living life in a very different way than any state in the region, especially Iran or similar. We certainly are significantly different.

"Detest" and "pariah state" phrases stand out in your personal observations/views. I know that the Turks definitely would disagree at personal level if not in political, since things are changing at such a fast pace at times ...

Would you elaborate with just a few words what induced you to use those particular word choices while eyeing the political arenas and the states in the region, especially Turkey?
(I traveled in the region in my teenager years with my family, enough to find out that, we Turks differed greatly from the Middle East set of mind of the Arabs or Iranians in 1980s and early 1990s. The social and political lifes were so different and unliberated that it was a relief to be back in Turkey every time.)

I'm just curious and don't mean to read any negative intentions for your choices. As an outsider's views they sound intriguing, that's all.
Only if you wish to share, of course. :)

Yildiz

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bakubo
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Re: Turkey trip photos

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The headline on the news story probably left out a word, I suspect. Probably what Friedman was saying was regional superpower. He and others have been discussing this for several years. Turkey has traditionally been a big power, but only in fairly recent history has it not been. It looks like Turkey is returning to the norm. Anyway, here is something from a few months ago that Friedman wrote himself (rather than a short news article written by someone else about what he is saying):

George Friedman: The Failed Coup Will Help Turkey Become a Major Power

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editori ... ajor-power

Emerging as a regional power puts great pressure on a nation. The shift in external reality causes internal shifts as well. This is what we see in Turkey: a clash between rival factions with diverse visions, a coup of some sort, and for now, a dictatorship.

Increased global power flows from greater domestic strength. But it also feeds back into the internal system. This creates strain on social and political fault lines.


By the way, Yildiz, Turks, like Americans, will need to grow a thick skin. :) You are starting to see the kinds of attacks and animosity that comes from people around the world. Stiff upper lip. :) I watch with interest, but try not to publicly state my opinion about the politics in other countries. :)
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Re: Turkey trip photos

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Yildiz, I did comment about real or perceived grievances. But just as there is a tendency in Japan to portray themselves as the victims of US aggression and somehow not responsible for their own actions, Turkey has shown no willingness to acknowledge let alone address the wrongs of either the past or unfortunately the present. Many in Turkey may believe that there are valid social or political internal reasons for this. The Ottoman Empire is not another country in this context or for that matter Ataturk or The Young Turks. This has become fertile grounds not simply for what is becoming referred to as the illiberal democrats but various social and political reactionaries far beyond Europe.

And I don't think that historically either the Iranians or the Egyptians just to be selective about others in the region can take even the most superficial examination.

But even putting to one side " The Kurdish Question" and the policies over several decades that are usually referred to as the Armenian Genocide, anyone can simply say look at Cyprus. And Ottoman aggression is still a part not just of history but of social and cultural tradition. Not all of the historical records can be put to one side of the basis look at what European countries have done to each other. Yes the Turks can legitimately complain at times they have been demonized both on religious grounds and more generally for nor being considered " them not us " but there are things there that can be considered at the time to be unacceptable conduct.

I think Rusty that the current Turkish President has done more to destroy the effectiveness of the Armed Forces than the amount of old and obselete equipment still showing up on the theoretical order of battle. Some of this is purely display. All the Turkish forces for at least the last 20 years have been attempting to modernize and adapt to changing circumstances. There is an ongoing policy not only of Turkish manufacture but of Turkish development in both hardware and software. The new Turkish MBT is an adaption / modification of the new Korean tank but in most of the light / medium armour is purely of Turkish design and the amount of it indicates that the army is serious about adapting to many different kinds of warfare.And not just re fighting the Battle of Kursk on the Anatolian plain.
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Re: Turkey trip photos

Unread post by peterottaway »

My last post was at 3am local time and doesn't read as well as I had hoped. This is going to sound like the old german joke that ends " but some of my best friends WERE Jewish. :)

We tend to be as a family quite combative and forceful in our opinions especially when family members or close friends do not live up expectation.

I promise no more sermons for 2017 and now back to photography.
aster
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Re: Turkey trip photos

Unread post by aster »

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Hi PeterOttoway; :)

I was just about to thank you for your/family's views that you shared with us/me when I realized there was a new message from you.
I personally would rather hear what's on a person's mind than have to abide by false appearances. History is always worth a deeper study of the motives and the results. Naturally I have my own views as well and how things look from where I am. :)

We have only the 'NOW' that we have any kind of control on, if any. Other than that it's also something that some others also had control and will on hence making part of our mutual history. It's an on-going struggle and fight against all things that are ugly in human nature to gain power over others that may or may not be weak or vulnerable. Sanity and healthy approaches aid in peaceful living in the home as well as with the neighbours. With all the desire for more arms and nukes, in the hands of some that have extreme and radical views on a planet that's already too small for its billions of people seeking better living conditions, we need better politics, much, much better leaders that have respects to other countries borderlines and what not.


And thanks for the article that you linked, Henry. :)
I certainly don't want any kind of dictatorship for Turkey and I certainly hope that the government and the leaders come to their senses. We want more freedom of expression and less people pressured by any parties out there that don't agree with whoever the 'other' is. A secular and liberal Turkey with a will solely on a true democracy should be the lead they need. We don't need dictators that are abusing any condition or political premise.

Well, all that said. We are in the NOW and that's the only time to contribute to anything good that the future may have in store for us all...

Yildiz
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Re: Turkey trip photos

Unread post by peterottaway »

A comment made many years ago to a very young, extremely immature history undergraduate by a somewhat elderly mature age post graduate student during a Friday night Geek Out.

" The past is waiting in ambush in the future to gain revenge on the present."

So it seems that we are coming at the same potential problem from different perspectives.
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bakubo
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Re: Turkey trip photos

Unread post by bakubo »

"The past is never dead. It's not even past." -- William Faulkner

These men in Sultanahmet, Istanbul, no doubt, spend hours and hours everyday discussing and solving the problems of the world. :) With all the practice they have had how can we possibly compete? :lol:

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bakubo
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Re: Turkey trip photos

Unread post by bakubo »

Yildiz, I hope you are okay after the big earthquake in Turkey today.
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Re: Turkey trip photos

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bakubo wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:11 am Yildiz, I hope you are okay after the big earthquake in Turkey today.
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Hello, Henry.

Yes, all of my family and I are fine. Thank you for your concern. I appreciate it very much.
We are all saddened naturally for all those that suffered in the region that were on the quake line. The aftershocks are still coming, and the country is in a state of emergency. We hope for the best. We are eagerly waiting for the aftershocks to be over before there are any more victims.

I hope you and your family are fine where you are.
Best regards,

Yildiz
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bakubo
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Re: Turkey trip photos

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I am glad that you and your family are well. Are you still in Instanbul? After I posted the message I later saw reports that the earthquake was in the east on the Turkey/Syria border. The first report I saw yesterday did not say that.

In 2014 when I was there the furthest east I got was to Konya in central Turkey. Here are a few of the wonderful people I met in Turkey. :D

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aster
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Re: Turkey trip photos

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bakubo wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:21 am I am glad that you and your family are well. Are you still in Instanbul? After I posted the message I later saw reports that the earthquake was in the east on the Turkey/Syria border. The first report I saw yesterday did not say that.

In 2014 when I was there the furthest east I got was to Konya in central Turkey. Here are a few of the wonderful people I met in Turkey. :D

-
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:D Hi again, Henry.

Yes, as it happens, we are in Istanbul, which is pretty distant from the region. The fault line the earthquake happened on is a historically known one that is active to create a forceful quake almost every 100 years. It's in the books. The 'Anatolian plate' which is Turkey, was squeezed by the tectonic move of the 'Arabian Plate' from the East against the 'Eurasian Plate' in the North, hence the resulting quake on a very long line. (a magnitude 7.8 and later a mag. 7.5 followed along with many disturbing aftershocks).

Mostly the buildings that did not meet the constructional standards were devastated. Next time, builders/contractors should make better buildings/structures that meet the earthquake zone regulations and requirements. The truth of the zone demands that.

As you know, Japan encountered many 7-8 magnitude earthquakes over the years but since they build with conscious deliberation to meet the region's tectonic reality, the survival rate is high and there's hardly any devastation or damage in the buildings, just a few moments of shaking and settling. I hope the new constructions will be of Japan's quality...

I missed your Turkey photos! :) How candid they are and how the kids/students responded to you. I should check out your new galleries at Bakubo.com. :) You surely must have been travelling to many other locations by now.

My best regards and respect to all of you! :)
Yildiz
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