Model line-up strategy

[bfitzgerald]

If sony cut the prices on the A230 and the A380 (when it's out), and cut them heavily..they could probably sell well.

Question is how many sales do they lose when the A200 is no longer available or stocked? If anything I would have done a Nikon, keep the low end A200 out there for peanuts, and sell it like crazy..why not..it's older, but just like the D40..still a good seller.

[stevecim]

A200 is selling great in the UK
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/ ... =UTF8&pg=1

The A230 is down in 60th place!

The A230 has now dropped to 64th Place

[alphaomega]

I am sure you all have read David Kilpatrick´s latest article on Sony´s new Handycam HDR-CX520VE/505VE
Looking at quoted details such as

Key to incredible picture quality is an ultra-high resolution Exmor R™ CMOS Sensor. This Sony-developed sensor features a highly efficient ClearVid array with back-illuminated technology that captures more light than conventional sensor designs. The result: crystal clear, detail-packed Full HD video and still images up to 12 effective megapixel resolution, with superb contrast and vibrant colours.

Thanks to a dramatic 2x increase in sensitivity, you’ll enjoy phenomenal picture quality in low light with dramatically reduced picture noise compared with ordinary CMOS models. You’ll really see the difference in dimly-lit interiors and atmospheric twilight moments.

Realising the full potential of the Exmor R™ sensor is the latest version of Sony’s BIONZ imaging processor. This further reduces picture noise, while ensuring superb image detailing and lifelike colours.

A premium-quality G Lens complements the incredible imaging capabilities of the Exmor R™ CMOS sensor and BIONZ processor. Showcasing Sony’s unique optical design concept, G Lens is precision-engineered to the highest standards.

I wonder if we are looking into what technology Sony may modify and incorporate into the new A500 series as well as a potential upgrade to the venerabale A700? Maybe the focus was on upgrading the A2/300 series as the new technology was not yet ready for the more up-market cameras? I just feel that we may be in for an interesting 12 months ahead in terms of Sony DLSR releases. What about the emphasis on noise reduction caused by the new CMOS sensor and BIONZ processor? As someone has suggested some time ago Sony seems now to promote their G lens technology at the expense of CZ. Any comments on that development? Cannot believe that Sony will not continue their co-operation with CZ.

[David Kilpatrick]

Sony recently signed a new 5-year exclusive deal with CZ, so that is not going away. I don't think anyone knows yet whether back-illuminated CMOS can be used in DSLR size sensors. We have to assume that it will be, but not necessarily in the 2009 generation.

David

[alphaomega]

Per DK´s comments above on back-illuminated CMOS, Thom Hogan has a 2009 News and Comments item on his Websie where he predicts a D300s

The D60 and maybe the D40 will be replaced by a D3000, while the D300 will be replaced by a D300s. Neither update is groundbreaking, but both push both the quality and feature levels of these cameras upwards.

.
He further states that the D300s will be

A D300 with the addition of video, better IQ, minor feature additions

On the basis that the D300s uses a Sony sensor it looks like a D90 sensor with video etc. transferred into the D300 body rather than anything revolutionary. So the "breakthrough" will be 2010 or later if ever. Probably the A500 when it arrives will be a Sony D90.
I think I shall be keeping my wallet in the pocket for the time being. Not a lot of improvement over my A700/350 combo as far as I can ascertain.

[David Kilpatrick]

Nikon improved the D90 sensor for the D5000. The real fuss out there is that the D5000 beats the D300 for raw image quality - low and high ISO. That's why Nikon users want a new D300.

David

[alphaomega]

Ref. DK & Don above, wonderful stuff. Nikon needs to get out a D300s so that it is at least as good at as the D5000 at double the price. OK, so you get a lot of complicated settings and complicated menu in the A300 as well that put me on to the A700 when I went for my first DSLR. I assume Sony then will bring out the A500 series with basically the same sensor to show that they can do as well with their own sensors as competition. Going to be fun to watch. Seems to me that the basic Exmor 12 Mp CMOS sensor gets a lot of use these days. A700/D300/D90/D5000/D300s and probably A500 series. Let it run a bit longer to recover development and tooling costs before the next generation is commercialised. I wonder why the 14Mp CCD is limited to the A350/380? Not sure how Sony can recover development costs on that one. They must have made a mint on the 10Mp CCD in the A100/200/300, various Nikons and Pentax.

[bfitzgerald]

Loads of Nikon gossip flying about including updated FF models, a replacement to the D40/60, and notch below the D5000 (D3000).with the 12mp CMOS (no idea if video will make it on that one) Tweaked and updated D300 model.

Gonna be very interesting on this front, looks like a major offensive from Nikon

Sony's going to have to respond soon, and in the mid to upper APS segment. Too soon probably for another FF model.

One thing I like about Nikon, is they are not scared to improve their lower models, and use the better sensors on them, tweak IQ etc. We should be so lucky with Sony, still using the old CCD's from some time ago.
Have to wonder if and when these A500 ones turn up, if we will get better sensors. Nikon do seem to be doing a good job with the Sony sensors. Makes you worry a bit..

[David Kilpatrick]

Press conf on 29th. We are invited. Richard will go.

David

[Greg Beetham]

I don't suppose there were any subtile hints as to what the agenda might comprise of in the press conference David?
Greg

[KevinBarrett]

I'll go ahead and link the Nikon leak then:

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/readf ... d=32348750

There's a lot of neat ideas in there, including:
-two exposures per mirror action to achieve 16 fps
-an "electronical rangefinder" which displays focus accuracy in MF mode using selected focus points
-AF-S DX 60-95mm f/2G VR, presumably an all-in-one fast portrait zoom. How novel!

[Greg Beetham]

I shudder to think what that Nikon 60-95 f/2G VR is going to cost.....
Greg

[PhotoTraveler]

Backlit just isn't happening for DSLRs.

As has been discussed many time. It's for super small photosites of P&S/Video/Cell Phone Cameras. On the very large photosites of DSLRs, it would have almost zero benefit. It's all about scaling of area. It can increase the photosite area on small high rez sensors a lot because the electronics take a up a large portion of the photosite. But on big sensors, the electronics are just a small percentage of the area.

The only way you will see them go to the backlit on DSLR sized sensors is if there is manufacturing/cost benefits (cheaper, easier) which is unlikely or they would have made sensor that way long ago. Or as we get into 100+ MP range on APS cameras. Which won't be very soon.

It's simply something people need to flush out of their brains. Just because they do it for one thing, doesn't mean they will apply it to something else.

Right now the future of Sony sensors looks pretty clear. A 14-16MP CMOS sensor to come out, very possibly for a A550, while the A500 gets the current 12MP unit. The 14-16MP unit also gets used in a A700 replacement. Maybe the next gen of entry level stuff gets those sensors in time too. A A900 replacement will come with a 30MP FF sensor based on the A700/D300 Photo-site, or a derivative of it. Plot out Sony's CMOS sensors, they re-use photosites a lot, and follow various trends. They will cut and paste what they have for a bit.

Nikon is probably doing an "s" model of the D300 since it's not missing much of anything. So slapping video into it and some other tweaks makes more sense for now. It's not like D300 is a bad seller. Also even if Sony has a new sensor ready, why make the jump now. Let sony go test the waters on it. I think since Sony got in the Game, they have let Sony be first out with all the new sensors, even sometimes passing on them (14MP CCD). Sony naturally will want more pixels to keep up with Canon. Canon made a huge jump to 15MP, and that's on a smaller sensor than Sony. Lord knows what Canon might do on a 60D. So Sony is probably eager to get something like a 16MP sensor out to be "on top". Canon very well might just carry over a sensor for once and focus on the body. The #0D line is basically competing with the D90 type cameras now. Canon might try to make it a competition for D#00 line from Nikon again.

[PhotoTraveler]

I wouldn't put much faith in it. I think someone took some real info, and added to it to try and get their dreams to sound real.

Over at DPR just last week in the nikon forums a person started a thread wanting F2 zoom from Nikon. Other contributed there wants. 2 of the lenses on this list that shows up later is just barely different from one I put out there in the thread. Others are what people have hoped for a while. I think the person just tried to make them sound more real by making the variable aperture (which isn't too far off).

I suspect items on it are real. Just not all of it. 6 bodies in 6 quarters is a lot. More importantly 16 lenses in that time is a ton.

Some of the specs just don't hit right. Take the D400. A D300s is coming in Q3, figure it won't be in stores till near Q4 of the year. And so in less than a year a D400 comes. That's a bit tight, granted they could co-exist for a while, and Sony will replace the A700 by then, but it's a bit odd. Also it only being 13.8MP is unlikely. I don't see Sony restraining that much. To come out and have less pixels than current Canons, not likely. And I don't think Nikon is going to start making APS size sensors. The D4 is also rather quick. D3 isn't that old, and it's still moving along. Nikon would have to feel Canon has a threat in the works which is unlikely. In reality, what would give the D4/D400 more credit is if the Pixel Counts where flipped. 14MP D4, and 16MP D400.

The D4X pixel count is correct. As Sony will certainly be around 30MP on the next sensor as that's a scaled IMX021. But that would give the D3X a short life. Pro bodies like that have lives of 3 years, not less than 2.

The 60-95 is possible, but really, not practical. It's a DX lens, so your talking a 2.8/90-142 equivalent. That's not appealing at all. Not that great for portrait stuff, not a macro, not a great range. Doesn't make sense. Doesn't make sensor in FF either. You would do better with a 1.8/85 and a 2/100. Also who is going to be going for that kind of lens who isn't using a FF body?

Some other ones would be nice, like the 14-28, that could be awesome, but why not just make it a proper F4. The 24-135 sounds like a lens that would just make the current 28-120 look good. Nikon doesn't need that lens with more range, they need it with less, they need a 4/24-105.

And the 120-450 ? Sorry, no. That would be a beast and then some. And is too long on the short end. Yeah, it could happen, but lets be honest.

Who ever did this again is probably pulling from some real info. But I think they are definitely inserting some of their own. Or they have just got sucked into a Nikon leak test, and Nikon has found a leak now. (Nikon release true with Real, and do it different in different places, so they know who did it).

I shudder to think what that Nikon 60-95 f/2G VR is going to cost.....
Greg

[peterottaway]

I consider myself an optimist but the best I can see happening is

July/August 2009 Sony announce A500 and A550. Nikon announce D3000 and D300s refresh.

October/November Nikon announce D90s refresh. This mainly an update on video.

PMA 2010 Sony announce A7xx with 15/16 MP. Nikon may announce D4 which is a D3 with a 15MP version of the current 12MP FF sensor. D5000s refresh.

June/July 2010 Sony refresh A200/300 bodies plus A800 FF ( revised todays A900 ) perhaps a few hundred dollars cheaper. Nikon announce D400.

Photokina 2010 Sony announce 30MP FF and refresh A500/550. Nikon announce D700x with 24MP FF and D95 revision.

Late November Nikon announce D4x with the Sony FF sensor.

The next new FF are in fact just as likely not to appear until 2011 and not for technical reasons. Financially as long as the current versions are selling then there is no hurry to replace them. Also many of todays lenses battle to perform well with 20-24MP sensors, Nikon as much as anyone needs to update a number of its enthusiast/pro lenses which is neither a cheap or quick undertaking. Sony lens users are not alone in wanting more and better.