The Japanese camera and photo product manufacturing association CIPA has issued a press release PDF, containing a table of predicted figures, relating to 2009-2011 projections. Here we reproduce the text and the table (as a JPEG).
This is the main text:
The Camera & Imaging Products Association (CIPA, President: Tsuneji Uchida) has announced the outlook on the shipment forecasts by product-type concerning cameras and related goods for the term from 2009 to 2011.
I. Outlook on Shipments in 2009
1) Digital Cameras
The total shipments of digital cameras in 2008 (the cumulative total of shipments from January to December) exceeded the performance in 2007 when shipments broke through the 100 million unit mark for the first time since CIPA began compiling statistics. A total of 119,757,000 units were shipped, representing an increase of 19.3% on the previous year’s performance based on volume.
The growth was exhibited across both categories of product type with shipments of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras reaching 9,687,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 29.7%) and shipments of digital cameras with built-in lens reaching 110,070,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 18.5%).
Nevertheless, the effects of the rapid economic slowdown since the autumn of 2008 have begun to manifest themselves in the digital camera market. On the basis of these changes, the forecast for 2009 envisages total overall shipments including digital cameras with built-in lens and the sales driver interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras declining by approximately 790,000 units to 118,971,000 units (a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%).
In terms of the breakdown in shipments by product type, the forecast anticipates shipments of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras increasing by approximately 660,000 units to 10,349,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 6.8%) and shipments of digital cameras with built-in lens declining by approximately 1,450,000 units to 108,622,000 units (a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%).
2) Interchangeable Lenses for SLR Cameras
The total shipments of interchangeable lenses for SLR cameras in 2008 was underpinned by significant growth in shipments of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras associated with the expansion of the SLR camera user base. Lens shipments exhibited firm growth with a total of 15,655,000 units shipped on a volume basis (a year-on-year increase of 25.1%).
The forecast for 2009 anticipates that lens shipments will continue to grow due to the continuation of sustained strong demand for interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras. Shipments are expected to increase by approximately 960,000 units to a total of 16,610,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 6.1%).
II. Outlook on Shipments in 2010 and 2011
1) Digital Cameras
The forecast for total shipments of digital cameras in both 2010 and 2011 reflects the effects of gradual moves toward economic recovery anticipated. Continued overall growth can be expected albeit at lower rates than the high levels recorded up until 2008.
In view of the growth potential in Asia and Other Areas, the forecast envisages total shipments increasing in 2010 to 122,449,000 (a year-on-year increase of 2.9%) and in 2011 to 125,954,000 (a year-on-year increase of 2.9% year-on-year).
By product type, the forecast anticipates that the sustained steady growth in shipments of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras will continue with 2010 shipments reaching 11,242,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 8.6%) and 2011 shipments totaling 12,029,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 7.0%). Shipments of digital cameras with built-in lens are also predicted to increase with 2010 shipments reaching 111,207,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 2.4%) and 2011 shipments totaling 113,925,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 2.4%).
2) Interchangeable Lenses for SLR Cameras
The forecast for total shipments of interchangeable lenses for SLR cameras in both 2010 and 2011 envisages that the growth in lens shipments will track the robust growth path of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras with 2010 shipments reaching 17,972,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 8.2%) and 2011 shipments totaling 19,151,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 6.6%).
In view of the unavoidable effects of the rapid economic slowdown on the shipment forecast, as described above, we will continuously assess the forecast based on updated results and announce a revised forecast on the basis of the results for the first quarter of 2009.
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